Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — International rating agency Fitch Ratings has assigned Multinational Mine Group FE LLC (MMG) an expected Long-Term Issuer Default Rating in foreign currency of B(EXP) with a Stable Outlook. Fitch announced the rating on 29 September 2026.
At the same time, the agency assigned the proposed senior secured bonds of MMG an expected rating of B(EXP) with a Recovery Rating of RR4. Final ratings will depend on receipt of final documentation consistent with the information reviewed by Fitch. Proceeds from the bond issue are planned to be used to refinance existing debt and finance capital expenditure.
MMG’s rating reflects the company’s small scale, dependence on a single mine, high production costs and the continued ramp-up of operations to design capacity. Fitch expects gold production to increase from about 90,000 ounces in 2026 to more than 170,000 ounces by 2030. At the same time, the agency forecasts negative free cash flow in 2026–2027 due to expansion and optimization spending.
Dependence on a single mine
Fitch considers MMG’s dependence on a single asset — the Karasay gold mine and its processing facilities in Uzbekistan — the main constraint on the company’s credit profile. Commercial production at Karasay was announced in the first quarter of 2026, while the plant is expected to reach full capacity in the fourth quarter.
MMG also owns the nearby Bashtavak deposit and plans to develop it. Additional ore will be processed at the existing Karasay plant. As a result, the company’s entire cash flow is currently generated by a single mine.
Fitch notes MMG’s limited operating history, with its first gold pour taking place only in the fourth quarter of 2025. As Karasay reaches design capacity and expansion projects are implemented, production is expected to increase from about 90,000 to 170,000 ounces. The reserve life is estimated at approximately 9.5 years.
High capital expenditure
Fitch expects MMG’s total capital expenditure in the second half of 2026 and in 2027 to amount to about US$397 million. This will keep the company’s free cash flow negative.
The investment programme includes construction of a pressure oxidation plant, development of the Bashtavak deposit, a heap-leaching project and further optimization of mining operations. Fitch assesses the execution risks of these projects as moderate.
High production costs remain another factor. In the first half of 2026, MMG’s all-in sustaining costs amounted to US$2,512 per ounce, placing the company in the fourth quartile of the global cost curve. As production increases, Fitch expects the company’s position to improve to around the 75th percentile, although it will remain in the fourth quartile.
Debt and planned bonds
Fitch forecasts MMG’s gross debt to increase to US$300 million by the end of 2026 from US$230 million in the first half of the year. Debt is expected to continue increasing in 2027 as the investment programme is implemented.
Over the medium term, Fitch expects net leverage to EBITDA to remain at 2–2.5x. The agency forecasts free cash flow of US$40–90 million annually in 2028–2030, based on an expected decline in gold prices.
The planned US$300 million issue of senior secured bonds is expected to improve the company’s short-term liquidity profile by refinancing existing bank debt and funding expansion projects.
At the end of June 2026, MMG had US$1 million in cash and cash equivalents and a fully drawn US$30 million revolving credit facility. The company plans to refinance this facility and existing term debt using proceeds from the bond issue.
Peer position
Fitch notes that MMG is the smallest of the three gold mining companies considered, alongside Aris Mining Corporation and IAMGOLD Corporation. MMG’s production is expected to rise to 170,000 ounces from a single mine in Uzbekistan. By comparison, Aris forecasts approximately 300,000–350,000 ounces in 2026 from two operations in Colombia, while IAMGOLD expects about 720,000–820,000 ounces from three mines.
According to Fitch, Uzbekistan’s domestic Navoi and Almalyk mining and metallurgical complexes are significantly larger and more diversified, while their production costs are lower.
Fitch forecast
In its rating case, Fitch assumes a gold price of US$4,500 per ounce in 2026, followed by a decline to US$2,300 in 2030. MMG’s gold production is forecast at 90,000 ounces in 2026, 142,000 ounces in 2027, 156,000 ounces in 2028 and 172,000 ounces in 2030.
A potential positive rating factor would be a significant improvement in the company’s business profile through higher production and diversification while maintaining gross leverage below 3.0x or net leverage below 2.0x on a sustained basis.
Potential downgrade factors identified by Fitch include sustained gross leverage above 4.0x or net leverage above 3.0x, continued negative free cash flow after the investment phase, a decline in liquidity reserves below 12 months of operating needs, and an inability to implement planned investment projects.
MMG is a gold mining company that recently announced the start of commercial production at the Karasay project in Tashkent region. Its targeted production volume exceeds 150,000 ounces.
