Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Uzbekistan’s economic growth accelerated to 8.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, the highest rate among Central Asian countries during the period, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Regional Economic Prospects report published in September 2026.
According to the bank, the services sector was the main driver of growth in Uzbekistan, contributing 4.4 percentage points to the overall rate. Manufacturing output increased 8.8% year-on-year, while trade grew 13.5% amid an 18.4% increase in wages and a 13% rise in remittances from migrant workers. Fixed investment rose 17.5% year-on-year, which the EBRD described as “confident investment growth.”
Inflation, after declining in May, accelerated again to 6.4% year-on-year in July amid higher global energy prices. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has kept its policy rate at 14% since March 2025. The country’s exports fell 4.5% year-on-year in January–July 2026 due to lower gold shipments, while imports increased 17.8%, more than doubling the trade deficit to US$9.7 billion (€8.5 billion). Public debt reached 27% of GDP by mid-2026. At the same time, international reserves rose 32% year-on-year to US$64 billion (€55.8 billion) at the end of July 2026, supported by additional gold purchases.
The EBRD raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Uzbekistan by one percentage point from its June estimate, to 7.5%, followed by a slowdown to 6.0% in 2027. The upward revision was attributed to resilient domestic demand. The bank identified a slowdown in Russia’s economy and potential prolonged disruptions to Russian fuel supplies among the main risks for Uzbekistan. Such disruptions could amplify the impact of higher global energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
According to the EBRD, economic growth across Central Asia and Mongolia, a region the bank treats as a single group, increased from 5.9% in 2024 to 6.9% in 2025 before returning to 5.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2026. The EBRD forecasts regional growth of 5.8% in 2026 and 5.3% in 2027. In addition to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan recorded the highest growth rates in the first half of 2026, driven by construction, manufacturing and domestic demand, while Mongolia’s growth was supported by increased mineral extraction and exports.
In Kazakhstan, the region’s largest economy, growth slowed to 4.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2026. Disruptions along the Caspian Pipeline Consortium export route and incidents at the Tengiz field led to an 8.9% decline in oil and gas production in January–July, prompting authorities to revise the annual oil production target from 98 million to 96 million tonnes. At the same time, manufacturing grew 9.0%, while construction increased 15.3% year-on-year. Inflation declined from a peak of 12.9% in September 2025 to 9.8% in August 2026, allowing the National Bank of Kazakhstan to cut its policy rate by a cumulative 175 basis points to 16.25% over the year through September 2026. The budget deficit amounted to 3 trillion tenge (€5.6 billion), or around 2% of GDP. The EBRD forecasts Kazakhstan’s economy to grow 4.7% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.
In Kyrgyzstan, real GDP grew 11.1% year-on-year in January–July 2026, mainly driven by investment activity. Fixed investment increased 58.8%, while construction grew 60.6%. At the same time, remittances from migrant workers declined 9% amid tighter migration policies and slower economic growth in Russia. Inflation accelerated to 11.5% in July 2026, prompting authorities to introduce temporary fuel subsidies, retail price restrictions and a one-year moratorium on tariff increases. The EBRD expects the economy to grow 8.7% in 2026 and 7.0% in 2027, noting risks linked to Kyrgyzstan’s dependence on Russia as a source of remittances and fuel, with Russia accounting for more than 90% of the country’s fuel imports.
In Tajikistan, real GDP increased 8.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 amid growth in services, industry and agriculture, as well as a sharp 57.2% increase in exports driven by shipments of precious metals and minerals. The country’s international reserves reached a record US$6.8 billion (€5.9 billion) in May 2026, covering more than nine months of imports. The EBRD forecasts growth of 7.9% in 2026 and 7.0% in 2027.
In Turkmenistan, official GDP growth stood at 6.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, supported by transport and communications, trade and services, as well as construction amid continued government investment. In July 2026, Fitch affirmed the country’s sovereign credit rating at “BB-” with a stable outlook, citing low public debt and significant international reserves. The EBRD forecasts growth of 6.3% in both 2026 and 2027.
Mongolia’s economy grew 7.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, supported by a 52.4% increase in coal production and a 20.0% rise in copper output amid continued production expansion at the Oyu Tolgoi mine. Export revenues increased 57.5% in January–July, while the trade surplus was more than four times higher than a year earlier. The EBRD forecasts Mongolia’s economy to grow 6.3% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027.
