Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The US dollar remained near 11,800 soums as of 24 September.
After a spike in February, the US currency has maintained a steady downward trend. In summer, the exchange rate fell below 11,910 soums for the first time since December 2025, while in September it has remained consistently below 12,000 soums. Current levels are among the lowest recorded since the devaluation three years ago.
One explanation for the strength of the soum is an improved balance in the domestic foreign exchange market. In the first half of the year, demand for foreign currency increased 20% to US$32 billion, while supply, excluding Central Bank operations, grew even faster, by 31% to US$27.8 billion. As a result, the foreign currency shortage narrowed by US$1.3 billion, or 24%. International reserves provide an additional buffer of stability: by early September, they exceeded US$72 billion, reaching their highest level since February.
The macroeconomic environment is also supporting the national currency. At its 16 September meeting, the Central Bank kept its policy rate at 14%. Annual inflation fell to 6.2% in August, while core inflation declined to around 5.5%. However, the regulator is not yet ready to ease monetary policy because of resilient domestic demand and continued price pressures. In practice, this means positive real interest rates support the attractiveness of soum savings, while appreciation of the real effective exchange rate also helps contain imported inflation.
Risks remain. Strong consumer and investment demand is supporting imports and businesses’ need for foreign currency, while high global prices for commodities, food and energy could increase imported inflation. Further liberalization of regulated prices poses an additional risk. For now, however, the combination of growing foreign currency supply and the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy is allowing the soum to remain strong.
For the coming week, the baseline range for the dollar/soum pair remains at 11,700–11,950.
Anna Bodrova, an analyst at Alpari
