Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Fitch Ratings has affirmed the long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating of Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Company (NGMK or NMMC) at BB with a positive outlook. The company’s senior unsecured debt rating was also affirmed at BB, with a recovery rating of RR4.
NMMC’s standalone credit profile is assessed at bb+, but its final rating is constrained by Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating, as the state is the company’s sole shareholder. Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating stands at BB with a positive outlook.
Production strengths and government support
Fitch highlights NMMC’s scale, noting that the company produced 3.15 million ounces of gold in 2025, placing it among the world’s largest gold producers.
Its strengths include low mining costs, high profitability, long mine lives and moderate leverage.
However, the rating is constrained by the concentration of all production assets in Uzbekistan, a challenging operating environment and limited liquidity.
According to Fitch, NMMC’s close ties with the state influence its credit profile. The authorities participate in the company’s strategic management and affect its cash flows through taxes and dividends.
The government owns NMMC through the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Fitch assesses both the government’s responsibility for supporting the company and its willingness to provide such support as high.
NMMC is strategically important to Uzbekistan’s economy, accounting for more than 80% of the country’s gold production. It is also the country’s largest taxpayer and one of its leading employers.
Plans to increase gold production
NMMC produced 3.15 million ounces of gold in 2025. It operates 12 major mining sites, seven plants and two heap-leaching facilities.
Its main production asset remains the Muruntau deposit, which accounts for around 70% of the company’s gold output and more than 80% of its reserves. Fitch estimates that Muruntau’s existing reserves will last approximately 25 years. The assessment of reserves at other deposits under the JORC Code is nearing completion.
NMMC plans to increase gold production to 4.02 million ounces by 2030, approximately 30% above its 2025 level. Its development programme includes expanding Muruntau, building an additional hydrometallurgical plant to process low-grade ore, developing two new silver deposits and establishing a facility to process silver-bearing ore.
Fitch estimates that the company’s annual capital expenditure will average around US$900 million in 2026–2029. The agency notes that management has a successful track record of completing expansion projects ahead of schedule without significant budget overruns. The company is also developing a strategy extending to 2035.
Low costs and financial resilience
According to Wood Mackenzie, NMMC ranks in the lowest-cost quartile of gold producers based on all-in sustaining costs. Its cost advantages stem from low operating expenses, a high share of costs denominated in the national currency and economies of scale, particularly at Muruntau.
All-in sustaining costs (AISC) for gold production stood at US$1,358 per ounce in 2025 and increased to US$1,647 in the first half of 2026. Fitch attributes the rise to higher royalties, increased prices for consumables and electricity, rising labour costs and greater stripping volumes.
The agency expects costs to increase further, partly because of a slight decline in the gold grade of mined ore. Efficiency improvements should provide a partial offset.
Fitch nevertheless forecasts that NMMC’s average net debt-to-EBITDA and gross debt-to-EBITDA ratios will remain below 1.0x over 2026–2030. Under the agency’s base case, the company’s average EBITDA margin is expected to exceed 53% in 2026–2029.
The forecast also assumes annual capital expenditure of US$900 million, dividend payments equivalent to 95–100% of net profit, and average annual social spending of around US$100 million in 2026–2029.
Eurobonds and liquidity
In 2024–2025, NMMC issued three tranches of eurobonds worth US$500 million each, with maturities between 2028 and 2031. The proceeds were used to repay more expensive loans ahead of schedule, diversify the debt portfolio, improve the maturity profile and reduce debt servicing costs.
As of June 2026, the company had US$37 million in unrestricted cash. It also had access to US$140 million under a US$400 million revolving credit facility.
Short-term debt, excluding amounts drawn under this facility, stood at US$101 million. The revolving credit facility matures in 2028.
Fitch expects free cash flow before dividends to remain solid despite the substantial investment programme. NMMC’s management aims to maintain cash balances of US$50–70 million and is working to formalise its financial policy, including liquidity management rules.
Conditions for rating changes
The positive outlook reflects the prospect of an improvement in Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating. Fitch considers a downgrade of NMMC unlikely, although a downgrade of the country’s sovereign rating would lead to a corresponding action on the company’s rating.
The company’s standalone credit profile could come under pressure if gross debt-to-EBITDA remains above 2.0x or if it records persistently negative free cash flow due to dividends, substantial capital expenditure or mergers and acquisitions.
NMMC’s rating could be upgraded if Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating is raised.
