Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its forecast for Uzbekistan’s economic growth in 2026 from 6.7% to 7.0%, despite an expected slowdown in developing economies across the Asia-Pacific region, according to the September edition of the Asian Development Outlook 2026.
The revision for Uzbekistan reflects stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first half of the year, solid macroeconomic indicators and sustained domestic demand.
Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 8.5% in January–June 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. Key drivers included strong investment growth, expansion of the services sector and robust domestic demand. Investment increased by 17.5%, while exports of goods excluding gold and exports of services also recorded significant growth.
The ADB said Uzbekistan’s economic outlook remains favorable amid ongoing structural reforms and sustained investment inflows, despite a slowdown in the global economy and rising geopolitical uncertainty.
The bank forecasts inflation in Uzbekistan at 6.7% in 2026. Recent changes in energy tariffs, higher fuel prices and related increases in transport and other service costs are expected to influence price dynamics.
Alongside the improved outlook for Uzbekistan, the ADB cut its economic growth forecasts for the Caucasus, Central Asia and West Asia by 0.1 percentage point for both 2026 and 2027, to 3.7% and 4.1%, respectively. The bank attributed the revision primarily to weaker-than-expected external demand, particularly from Türkiye.
Overall, the ADB expects growth in developing economies across the Asia-Pacific region to slow from 5.5% in 2025 to 5.0% in 2026 before rising to 5.1% in 2027. The 2026 forecast is 0.1 percentage point higher than the bank’s July estimate.
The ADB also lowered its regional inflation forecast for 2026 from 4.3% to 4.2%, while raising the 2027 forecast from 3.4% to 3.5%. Both forecasts remain above the 3% inflation rate recorded in 2025.
Among the main risks to the regional economy, the ADB identified a possible escalation of conflicts, including a worsening situation in the Middle East and the continuation of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Such developments could keep energy and other commodity prices high and volatile.
Another risk cited by the bank is a strong El Niño event, which is expected to persist through the first quarter of 2027. It could reduce agricultural production and increase demand for energy, adding pressure to fuel and food prices.
Other risks include a sharp correction in the value of artificial intelligence-related stocks, tighter financial conditions and renewed uncertainty over trade policy.
