Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The World Trade Organization has raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9%, from 1.9% in its March estimate. WTO economists attributed the revision to supply chains adapting to disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East and a surge in investment in artificial intelligence that sharply increased demand for high-tech goods. The forecast for trade in services, meanwhile, has been cut from 4.8% to 3.3%.
The estimates are contained in the Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report published on 8 October. In 2027, the WTO expects merchandise trade growth to accelerate to 4.1%, compared with 2.6% forecast in March, while trade in services is projected to grow by 6.4%. According to the organization’s estimates, the combined volume of global trade in goods and services will increase by about 3.7% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027. Global GDP is expected to grow by 2.6% and 2.9%, respectively, based on consensus estimates.
The WTO stressed that its 2027 forecast assumes a timely resolution of the conflict in the Middle East. If the conflict persists, actual results could differ substantially from the projections.
“These figures show trade resilience in action. When disruptions occur, an integrated global economy and rules-based trading system give economies the flexibility to keep essential goods flowing to the businesses and households that need them. Yet some have felt the shock more strongly than others, and not everyone has access to new opportunities such as AI,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said. She said it was important for the rules-based trading system to continue mitigating shocks and narrowing gaps by ensuring equal access to opportunities.
Supply chains withstand energy shock
In the first half of 2026, global merchandise trade grew by 3.5%, exceeding expectations. The WTO estimates that crude oil exports from the Middle East fell by about 24% during the period, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports dropped by 47%. However, other suppliers, including the United States, Norway and Brazil for oil, and Malaysia, Norway and Angola for LNG, increased their shipments. As a result, global oil exports declined by only about 6%, while LNG exports fell by around 1%.
A similar pattern emerged in the fertilizer market. In 2024, Gulf countries accounted for 24.8% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports and 11.4% of phosphate fertilizer exports. After the conflict began, shipments through the Strait of Hormuz virtually halted, while urea prices more than doubled, reaching about US$850 per tonne in April, before returning to the pre-crisis level of around US$400 by July. Phosphate prices rose by 25% to US$780 per tonne. Thanks to suppliers outside the region, global nitrogen fertilizer imports in March-June were only 2.8% below the 2023-2025 average, while phosphate fertilizer imports were 2.2% above it.
The rerouting of cargo through alternative ports and corridors helped maintain the momentum of maritime transport. From the beginning of the year through July, global container throughput increased by 3.9%.
Artificial intelligence drives nearly half of growth
Investment in artificial intelligence has become the main driver of trade. AI-related goods — semiconductors, servers and other equipment — accounted for 47% of the increase in global merchandise trade by value in the first half of 2026. Trade in these goods grew by 67% year-on-year, following increases of 16% in 2024 and 31% in 2025. Their share of global merchandise trade reached 14.8%, compared with 7-8% in 2016-2023.
Global spending on AI infrastructure is expected to increase by at least 30% in 2026 and by another 10-20% in 2027. Estimates of US hyperscalers’ AI capital expenditure in 2026 range from US$660 billion to US$690 billion, according to Futurum Group, and from US$725 billion to US$765 billion, according to Goldman Sachs Research. This represents a 77% increase from 2025.
Part of the growth is attributable to prices. According to estimates by the European Central Bank cited by the WTO, import prices for AI-related goods increased by about 10% in 2025 and by 20-30% in the first half of 2026.
Trade in these goods remains highly concentrated. In 2025, the ten largest participants accounted for about 85% of global exports and 80% of imports. East Asia excluding China accounted for 40.4% of AI-related goods exports, compared with a 10.8% share of total merchandise exports, while Southeast Asia accounted for 23.2%, compared with 8.1%. Europe’s share of the segment, by contrast, stood at 10.6%, compared with 35.5% of total merchandise exports. The WTO noted that economies with weak positions in the AI value chain have so far failed to narrow the gap, with the exception of several emerging players.
The report also describes the structure of the supply chain. Critical minerals are processed into substrates and chemicals, which are used to produce chips at factories. The chips are then incorporated into boards and servers for data centers. Chemicals and minerals account for about 1% of the value of trade in AI-related goods, intermediate products for 62%, and equipment for 37%.
Regions: growth in Asia, decline in Middle East and CIS
According to the WTO forecast, Asia will record the fastest merchandise export growth in 2026, at 9.9%. It will be followed by North America at 5.7%, Africa at 5.6%, and South America at 3.4%. Europe’s exports will remain virtually unchanged, declining by 0.1%, while exports from the CIS and the Middle East will fall by 3.9% and 17.2%, respectively.
Asia will lead import growth at 9.5%, followed by Africa at 8.9% and the CIS at 8.8%. North America and Europe are expected to post only modest increases of 1.4% and 0.5%, respectively, while the Middle East is projected to record a 15.4% decline. In 2027, CIS exports are forecast to grow by 5.3%, while imports will increase by 2.2%.
Asia remains the main source of global trade growth for the third consecutive year, contributing 4.0 percentage points to the overall 3.9% growth. The contribution of the rest of the world will be negative at -0.7 percentage points due to a sharp contraction in trade in the Middle East.
According to consensus estimates, Asia’s GDP will grow by 4.3% in 2026, Africa’s by 4.1%, South America’s by 2.5%, North America’s by 2.0%, the CIS’s by 1.7%, and Europe’s by 1.3%. The Middle Eastern economy is expected to contract by 4.0%.
Transport and tourism weigh on services trade
Trade in commercial services by value increased by 14% in the first quarter of 2026 and by 10% in the second. The slowdown is linked to the conflict’s impact on transport and tourism, sectors for which the Middle East serves as one of the world’s key hubs.
In 2026, the WTO forecasts that transport services by volume will grow by only 0.9%, while tourism services will increase by 0.2%. Other commercial services, including digitally delivered services, are expected to prove more resilient and grow by 4.8%. Exports of computer services rose by 18% in the first quarter and 12% in the second, while financial services exports increased by 14% in the second quarter.
Travelers’ spending abroad increased by only 5% in the second quarter, compared with 15% in the first. International tourist arrivals fell by 0.8% in the second quarter and increased by only 0.4% in the first half of the year. In March, the number of international passengers carried by Middle Eastern airlines fell by 61%, while direct passenger traffic between Europe and Asia increased by 29%.
Maritime freight also became more expensive. By the end of June, spot rates for container shipments from Asia to North America stood at about US$6,200-US$8,000 per 40-foot container, while rates to Europe and the Mediterranean were US$4,900-US$6,500.
Europe is expected to record the fastest growth in services exports in 2026, at 4.6%, accounting for more than half of global growth. It will be followed by Asia at 4.0%, Africa at 3.1%, North America and the CIS at 1.7% each, and South and Central America at 1.3%. Services exports from the Middle East are expected to decline by 10.3%.
Oil, inflation and value-based indicators
The price of Brent crude peaked at US$138 per barrel on 8 April, compared with about US$70 before the conflict began. After the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran in June, the price fell to about US$75, but subsequently rose again to US$100. According to data from the International Energy Agency cited by the WTO, about 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily before the conflict, of which 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels per day were redirected through alternative routes.
The global inflation forecast for 2026 has been raised from 3.7% to 4.7%. Gas prices in Europe exceeded US$21 per million British thermal units, the highest level since 2022.
By value, global merchandise trade increased by 15% in the first half of the year, significantly faster than its growth in physical volume of 3.5%. The WTO described the gap as one of the largest in recent years and attributed it to higher fuel prices and the rising cost of electronic components for data centers. Trade in office and telecommunications equipment increased by 49%, while fuel trade rose by 15%.
Asia’s merchandise exports by value increased by 24%, Africa’s by 23%, South and Central America’s by 19%, and the CIS’s by 10%. CIS imports rose by 12%. In South America and Africa, exports were supported by higher prices for critical minerals, precious metals and energy products. Exports from least-developed countries increased by 25%, while imports rose by 20%.
Fragmentation and risks
According to the WTO, the gap between trade within and between hypothetical geopolitical blocs narrowed in 2025-2026, meaning that bloc-based fragmentation is no longer intensifying. The main source of divergence remains the weakening of US-China trade ties: in 2025, US imports from China fell by 29%, while China’s share of US imports declined from 13.8% to 9.3%.
The WTO identified a possible slowdown in AI investment, which has a high import component, and persistently high fuel prices as the main risks to its forecast. The gap between crude oil and fuel prices reduces household purchasing power. In addition, the high concentration of AI companies in stock markets creates a risk for household savings if their valuations are reassessed.
