Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Uzbekistan’s trade could increase by US$93 billion by 2040 as the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (TCTC) develops, with US$78 billion of the increase coming from imports and US$15 billion from exports, according to a World Bank report. Uzbekistan also has the largest priority investment portfolio among the corridor countries, worth US$11.5 billion through 2040.
The data are presented in the report “Integration: World-Class Trade Logistics Along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor,” which models trade, freight and economic effects for nine countries along the corridor: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Türkiye, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
The US$78 billion and US$15 billion figures represent projected changes in the value of imports and exports between 2023 and 2040 under the baseline forecast. They do not represent Uzbekistan’s total trade volume in 2040. The combined figure of US$93 billion is the sum of the two components and is not presented as a separate indicator in the report.
Trade prospects
Across the corridor countries as a whole, the report forecasts a 1.5-fold increase in trade by value and a 60% increase in physical terms between 2023 and 2040, although results vary significantly by country. Uzbekistan is listed among the economies expected to lead growth in exports, alongside Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Türkiye, and in imports, alongside Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan. The increase in imports is linked by the authors to infrastructure initiatives, rising consumption and expanding intermediary trade.
Uzbekistan is expected to see significant export growth in textiles, vehicles, machinery and equipment, as well as copper.
The report notes that machinery, vehicles and electronics already account for around 12% of the value of Uzbekistan’s exports, while Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan recorded three-digit growth in trade in vehicles and machinery in 2023 compared with 2017.
Cotton, copper, fruit and nuts are among Uzbekistan’s leading exports by value, while machinery and equipment, vehicles and spare parts, and electronics dominate imports.
The World Bank warned that high trade costs, limited infrastructure and fragmented logistics could slow the transition to higher value-added goods.
Hydrocarbons, metals and other bulk and break-bulk commodities are expected to continue dominating trade along the corridor, while machinery, electronics and processed products will grow from a low base.
The corridor is currently used to a limited extent
Only a small share of Uzbekistan’s foreign trade currently passes through the corridor. In 2023, the country exported 388,000 tonnes via the Trans-Caspian route, or 5.1% of total exports, and imported 461,000 tonnes, or 1.6% of total imports, according to the report.
Economic impact of corridor investments
Separately from the baseline forecast, the World Bank modeled the impact of investment in TCTC infrastructure and lower transport costs. Under this scenario, Uzbekistan’s long-term GDP increases by 0.70%, or US$749 million, while employment rises by 0.40%. The equivalent cumulative average annual GDP increase over 10 years is 0.07%.
Exports increase by 0.97%, or US$253 million, with the largest gains coming from shipments to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Türkiye. Imports rise by 6.02%, or US$2.56 billion, which the report’s authors estimate would support domestic industries and investment growth.
Imports of machinery and equipment, as well as vehicles, increase significantly, while the volume of construction activity in Uzbekistan rises by 15.7%. The model is static and shows long-term results, so it cannot determine when exactly the effects will materialize.
The report also assesses the impact of lower logistics costs on agricultural and food exports. For Uzbekistan, a 5% reduction in costs would mean around 0.20 million tonnes of additional exports, a 10% reduction would result in 0.37 million tonnes, a 20% reduction in 0.72 million tonnes and a 50% reduction in 1.75 million tonnes. According to the authors, Uzbekistan has significant potential to increase exports, although Kazakhstan receives the largest share of the overall increase across the corridor.
Largest investment portfolio in the corridor
The report identifies US$11.5 billion in priority investments in Uzbekistan through 2040, more than in any other corridor country. Kazakhstan ranks second with US$7.53 billion, followed by Turkmenistan with US$3.78 billion and Türkiye with US$2.75 billion.
Around 80% of Uzbekistan’s portfolio is allocated to linear infrastructure such as roads and railways. The remainder is divided between dry ports and other node infrastructure, accounting for around 11%, and logistics equipment, accounting for around 9%. All the listed projects are classified as short-term, meaning they are to be implemented by 2030.
The largest item is the US$5.3 billion Tashkent–Andijan toll road. The 340-kilometer highway is planned under a public-private partnership (PPP), and the project is currently at the procurement stage. It is expected to halve travel time and boost trade in the Ferghana Valley.
The 300-kilometer Tashkent–Samarkand toll road is valued at US$1.4 billion, while the 270-kilometer Samarkand–Bukhara toll road is estimated at US$1 billion. Both projects are planned as PPPs and are currently at the feasibility study stage.
Railway and logistics investments include US$1 billion for the replacement and modernization of rolling stock, US$1 billion to expand railway network capacity and US$500 million to modernize signaling systems.
Another US$500 million is earmarked for the modernization of railway border crossings, with the possibility of developing dry ports in Andijan, Alat, on the border with Turkmenistan, and Syrdarya. Dry ports are also proposed for the Tashkent region at US$300 million, Jizzakh at US$300 million, with a focus on automakers and vehicle exports under the national target of producing 1 million cars by 2030, Samarkand at US$150 million and Navoi at US$50 million.
Under the rolling stock renewal plan, 10,000 railcars are to be replaced by 2030, most of them to be produced domestically by Uzbekistan Railways (UTY), while 38 locomotives are also planned for purchase. The report also identifies the US$625 million targeted rehabilitation of the Tashkent–Turkmenbashi railway, where work has not yet begun. Under the 2030 corridor development scenario, the Tashkent–Bukhara railway line is to be modernized to handle around 30 trains per day.
New route to China
The US$4.7 billion Uzbekistan–Kyrgyzstan–China railway, which is currently under construction, is the second-largest item in the corridor’s overall investment list. The line will run from Kashgar in China to Andijan in Uzbekistan.
According to the report, it will create a new main branch of the TCTC in Central Asia, linking East Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea, with potential access to the ports of Turkmenbashi, Aktau and Kuryk. By providing Uzbekistan with an alternative route to East Asia, the railway will increase the resilience of its trade and logistics links with key partners, the report says. The project, together with the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, is described as one of the best examples of joint cross-border infrastructure development along the corridor.
Railway network constraints
Uzbekistan’s railway network extends for 6,118 kilometers, around 41% of which is electrified. Single-track sections predominate, while customs and railway procedures differ from those of neighboring countries, according to the report.
Uzbekistan Railways operates around 60,000 railcars, a significant portion of which are restricted by axle-load and age limits. The company transports around 103 million tonnes of freight annually. The report describes it as a medium-scale system that serves as a regional link and is undergoing management, tariff and operating-system reforms.
Railways account for 60–70% of domestic freight transportation, excluding pipeline transport, in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
The Arys–Tashkent section on the border with Kazakhstan has been identified as a major bottleneck. The new Darbaza–Maktaaral line, a US$550 million project supported by the World Bank Group and designed for around 30 trains per day, is expected to ease the burden on this section.
The report also notes that Uzbekistan, along with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, has introduced electronic submission of customs transit declarations, although most countries along the corridor still require duplicate submission of paper documents.
Uzbekistan is among the countries that require road carriers to obtain a permit for transit transportation before entering the country.
Mineral resources and the wider economy
Mining accounts for around 10% of Uzbekistan’s GDP, or approximately US$16 billion, according to the authors, and is the country’s leading export sector.
Uzbekistan is identified as one of the sources of growing copper and aluminum flows that are expected to expand the corridor’s western gateway, where trade in non-ferrous metals is forecast to increase from 466,000 tonnes in 2023 to 1.1 million tonnes by 2040.
The report also notes that Uzbekistan, together with Kazakhstan and Türkiye, demonstrates higher learning outcomes than most economies along the corridor.
Natural and logistics risks
The report draws attention to natural hazards affecting Uzbekistan’s transport links. Earthquakes are the main source of risk for the country’s railways, accounting for 34%, while landslides account for another 15%.
Uzbekistan accounts for 52.6% of the total earthquake risk to the road network of the corridor in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
Climate-related degradation of roads and railways increases vulnerability to disruptions, particularly in the western regions of the country.
The Tashkent–Osh road (A373) in eastern Uzbekistan, which connects the Ferghana Valley with Tashkent via the Kamchik Pass and carries food, industrial goods and fuel, is identified as the country’s most landslide-prone road and a priority for intervention. The report’s authors also note that disruptions to Kazakhstan’s railways will affect Uzbekistan’s economy, particularly through wheat supplies, and that more than half of the indirect losses from a typical railway disruption occur outside the country where the affected line is located.
How the report’s scenarios apply
The World Bank modeled seven scenarios for the corridor as a whole for 2030 and 2040: a baseline status-quo scenario; a TCTC development scenario (TD), described as the most likely; a stress test of the development scenario under weaker global growth; scenarios with higher and lower maritime freight rates; and the best-case “stretch” scenario featuring faster border crossings and no capacity constraints.
The results for each scenario specifically for Uzbekistan are not published in the report. Under the development scenario, total freight volumes across the Caspian increase from 8.8 million tonnes in 2023 to 32.1 million tonnes by 2040, compared with 24.1 million tonnes under the status quo.
The Uzbekistan-specific data cited above are taken from the baseline trade forecast, the economic model of infrastructure investment, estimates of reductions in agricultural and food logistics costs, and the report’s investment appendix.
