S&P Warns Falling Gold Prices Risk Uzbekistan's Revenues

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — A potential decline in global gold prices in 2027–2028 could negatively affect Uzbekistan's external balance and reduce current account receipts by approximately 1% of GDP, S&P Global Ratings director Roman Rybalkin said at the Silk Road Finance & Technology Forum in Tashkent on 24 August 2026.

Rybalkin noted that while Central Asian nations have benefited from high gold prices and strong external inflows in recent years, such favorable external conditions will not last indefinitely. He highlighted possible deteriorating labor market conditions in countries that serve as key sources of labor income and remittances to Central Asia as an additional risk for the region.

Gold remains a vital driver of both external balances and state revenues for Uzbekistan. S&P Global Ratings forecasts a drop in gold prices in 2027–2028, which Rybalkin warned could constrain the country's financial outlook.

According to S&P estimates, a US$500 shift in the price of gold could alter Uzbekistan's government revenues by slightly less than US$1 billion through changes in tax receipts, mining company dividends, and other revenue streams.

Beyond gold, Rybalkin identified potential increases in fuel and food prices as external risks, alongside climate conditions such as precipitation levels, which impact hydroelectric power generation in Central Asia. He noted that water levels are particularly critical for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, while Uzbekistan plans to import substantial volumes of electricity from large hydroelectric plants currently under construction in neighboring countries.

Gold is one of Uzbekistan's key export items and foreign exchange sources, supporting external balances while forming a major part of the Central Bank's international reserves. In 2025, windfall revenues from gold trading boosted tax collections, enabling the government to raise state expenditures by 41.2 trillion soums, or US$3.43 billion.