S&P Links Uzbekistan's Rating Upgrade to Consistent Policies
Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — International investors evaluating Uzbekistan prioritize policy consistency and predictability over individual reform measures, according to Roman Rybalkin, director for Central Asia sovereign ratings at S&P Global Ratings.
Speaking at a capital and investment panel during the Silk Road Finance & Technology Forum in Tashkent on 24 August 2026, Rybalkin noted that discussions with investors highlight two key demands: economic growth and operational predictability. He stated that Uzbekistan has delivered solid expansion, benefiting from average annual growth of 6% since 2017 alongside favorable demographic trends across Central Asia.
Rybalkin directly connected S&P's decision to upgrade Uzbekistan's sovereign credit rating in 2025 to the authorities' steady policy execution and inter-agency coordination.
However, the agency warned that several cyclical drivers supporting macroeconomic stability in recent years will not persist indefinitely. Elevated gold prices and strong remittance flows have helped manage current account deficits, but declining commodity prices present future risks to the state budget and external balances.
S&P projects that falling gold prices in 2027–2028 could reduce Uzbekistan's current account receipts by roughly 1% of GDP. Furthermore, a US$500 movement in gold prices could impact government revenues—including taxes and mining dividends—by nearly US$1 billion. Climate conditions affecting hydroelectric generation in neighboring Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are also monitored as part of regional credit assessments.
In response to the agency's observations, Central Bank of Uzbekistan Chairman Timur Ishmetov acknowledged external risks surrounding oil and food prices. Ishmetov stated that while global shocks have not directly impacted Uzbekistan so far, the regulator is monitoring potential secondary transmission effects closely.
