IMRI Proposes New Regional Economic Forecasting Method
Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies (IMRI), in collaboration with analytical centers, is developing a unified methodological approach to evaluate and forecast the economic growth of Uzbekistan's regions through 2030, IMRI reported.
The proposed methodology evaluates three development scenarios—inertial, target, and passive—accounting for potential growth drivers and economic risks. The approach aims to expand the role of economic forecasting in management decision-making by identifying the factors required to hit target indicators, necessary resource allocations, and potential risks that could impact growth rates.
Under the framework, the inertial scenario projects regional economic dynamics based on maintaining current trends. The target scenario evaluates the additional investment volumes, production capacities, and structural reforms needed to achieve specific benchmarks. The passive scenario assesses potential economic growth losses should internal or external market risks materialize.
During a workshop hosted by IMRI, analysts examined the proposed methodology through practical calculations and discussed options for refining the framework to account for specific regional characteristics.
The ultimate objective of the initiative is to establish a unified analytical system capable of identifying specific economic growth drivers for each region, directing investments and resources to priority sectors, and assessing the effectiveness of economic policies.
