Central Bank of Uzbekistan Keeps Key Policy Rate at 14%

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The Board of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan decided at its meeting on 29 July 2026 to keep the policy rate unchanged at 14% per annum.

The regulator noted that the pace of inflation decline has slowed in recent months. Price dynamics continue to be affected by supply-side factors, external economic conditions and high domestic demand.

Annual inflation accelerated to 6.4% in June. According to the Central Bank, this was mainly due to increases in regulated energy tariffs and the liberalization of coal prices. Core inflation stood at 5.7% and has remained almost unchanged in recent months.

The Central Bank maintained its forecast for overall inflation at 6.5% by the end of 2026. The regulator believes that maintaining tight monetary conditions will allow inflation to continue declining towards the 5% target level and limit secondary effects from tariff changes.

The Central Bank also highlighted ongoing external risks. Amid geopolitical tensions in the global economy, risks remain of higher food and raw material prices. In addition, potential disruptions in fuel supplies from Uzbekistan’s trading partners, as well as higher logistics and transportation costs, could create additional pressure on domestic prices through import-related factors.

At the same time, a temporary slowdown in the decline of global inflation and the continuation of tight monetary policies by a number of countries increase the likelihood of a prolonged period of challenging external financial conditions.

According to the Central Bank, current monetary conditions remain sufficiently tight. Positive real interest rates support household savings and contribute to more moderate lending growth.

Economic activity in Uzbekistan remains strong. In the first half of 2026, the country’s gross domestic product increased by 8.5% in real terms. Growth in retail trade and services reflects high consumer activity, while investment dynamics indicate continued investment demand.

The Central Bank expects investment inflows, including foreign direct investment, as well as planned budget spending in the second half of the year, to continue supporting economic activity and domestic demand. The economic growth forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at 7.5–8%.

Inflation expectations among households and businesses declined in June. Household expectations stood at 10.1%, while business expectations were 9.9%.

The Central Bank will continue monitoring inflation trends, inflation expectations, domestic demand and external economic conditions. The next Board meeting to review the policy rate is scheduled for 16 September 2026.