Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Inflation expectations among Uzbekistan’s population fell again in August, reaching their lowest level since observations began. The average forecast for price growth over the next 12 months was 9.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from June and July, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan said.
The median estimate, which had risen sharply to 9% a month earlier, returned to 8%.
Among regions, the highest inflation expectations were recorded in Ferghana region at 11.7%, followed by Tashkent at 11.4% and Surkhandarya region at 10.9%. The lowest figures were recorded in Jizzakh region at 8.1%, Khorezm region at 8.4%, and Navoi and Bukhara regions at 8.6% each.
By occupation, IT professionals reported the highest forecasts at 11.4%. Expectations in the services and transport sectors stood at 11.1% and 10.9%, respectively. The lowest estimates were recorded among agricultural workers and students, at 8.7% each.
The highest forecast for price growth was again reported by citizens with monthly incomes of 30 million soums or more, at an average of 15.8%. Among respondents earning 15–20 million soums, the figure was 12.4%, while for those earning 7–15 million soums and 20–30 million soums, it ranged from 10.5% to 11%.
The lowest inflation expectations were recorded among citizens earning up to 2 million soums, at 7.9%, and those earning 2–4 million soums, at 9%.
Respondents identified higher utility tariffs and increased energy costs as the main factors influencing their expectations for price growth. They were cited by 53% and 52% of respondents, respectively. Both figures were slightly lower than in July.
Transport costs ranked third, cited by 32% of respondents. The share of citizens linking price growth to higher wages and benefits increased slightly to 28%. Exchange-rate fluctuations remained the least-cited factor, mentioned by 14% of respondents.
Inflation expectations among businesses also continued to decline. The average forecast among entrepreneurs was 9.6%, the lowest level since the relevant data began to be published. The figure fell by 0.2 percentage points from July and by 0.3 percentage points from June.
The median estimate among businesses followed the same trend as the population indicator: after rising to 9% in July, it fell back to 8% in August.
By region, the highest inflation expectations among businesses were recorded in Karakalpakstan at 11.5%. Ferghana region ranked second at 11.4%. The figure was 10.3% in Tashkent region and 9.9% in the capital.
The lowest business forecasts for price growth were recorded in Navoi region at 8.3% and Namangan region at 8.7%.
By sector, the highest inflation expectations were recorded in transport and education, at 10.9% each, followed by agriculture at 10.6%. The figure was 7% among artisans, 8.7% in trade and 9.2% in construction.
For businesses, the main factor behind price growth was higher energy costs, cited by 55% of respondents. Utility tariffs followed at 50%, while transport costs were cited by 34%.
The tax burden and exchange-rate fluctuations were identified as factors contributing to inflationary pressure by 15% and 14% of entrepreneurs, respectively.
