White House Names Uzbekistan in China Transshipment Risk List

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Uzbekistan has been included on a list of more than 40 countries and territories that the White House considers jurisdictions at elevated risk of illegally transshipping Chinese goods to circumvent US tariffs. The finding comes from a report titled "The Great Transshipment Scam," issued by the White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy.

The report places Uzbekistan in the third category, described as "small opportunistic targets," which also includes Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Jordan, Kenya, Morocco, Panama, the United Arab Emirates and several other countries.

According to the report's authors, countries in this category do not account for the largest transshipment volumes in dollar terms but possess certain advantages that make them attractive for redirecting Chinese goods: cheap labor, favorable free economic zone conditions, access to ports or border crossings, customs warehouses, narrowly specialized assembly capacity, or preferential access to the US market.

The report separately places Uzbekistan in a functional cluster of "Belt and Road land hubs" alongside Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan. According to the authors, countries in this group serve as transit rail hubs and dry ports that consolidate cargo and transfer it from land to sea transport. The report emphasizes that a country's inclusion on the list does not by itself mean that all of its shipments violate US customs rules.

According to the report, the transshipment problem emerged after the Trump administration imposed Section 301 tariffs on China in 2018. As tariffs on Chinese goods rose, some shipments that previously went directly from China to the United States began passing through countries with lower tariffs, where light assembly, repackaging, re-invoicing or changes to documentation were used to assign the goods a new country of origin.

The report's authors call this network a "shadow transshipment network" and divide the countries involved into three tiers: large, diversified economies such as Canada, the European Union, India, Israel, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Taiwan; countries with a high degree of integration into Chinese supply chains, including Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Turkey; and smaller jurisdictions, among them Uzbekistan.

To estimate annual transshipment volumes, the report cites five independent estimates, from the US Council of Economic Advisers, the Department of Commerce, and the companies Goldman Sachs, Exiger and Altana. The estimates range from US$40 billion to US$303 billion per year, depending on methodology. The White House uses a central estimate of US$75 billion, based on calculations by Exiger.

Applying assumed tariff differentials of 25%, 35% and 45%, the report's authors estimate annual US customs duty losses ranging from about US$10 billion under the narrowest estimate to more than US$100 billion under the broadest. Under the central scenario of US$75 billion in transshipment volume, annual duty losses are estimated at US$19 billion to US$34 billion.

The report also provides estimates of broader economic effects. Under the central scenario, it estimates the displacement of about 450,000 US jobs, losses to gross domestic product of US$113 billion to US$150 billion, and a reduction in federal tax revenue of US$19 billion to US$26 billion per year. Under the broadest impact scenario, these figures rise to 1.82 million jobs, more than US$450 billion in GDP and US$77 billion to US$103 billion in tax revenue.

According to the report, the Trump administration is already taking steps to counter illegal transshipment, including provisions in reciprocal trade agreements that limit third countries from capturing benefits, as well as a presidential executive order dated 3 June 2026 on strengthening customs enforcement, which tightens requirements for importers, collateral and disclosure of beneficial ownership. In addition, US Customs and Border Protection is developing an artificial intelligence-based system, known as the "detective border," intended to analyze data on shipments, routes and manufacturing capacity to identify anomalies and direct law enforcement efforts toward the most likely violators.

The report's authors note that it is too early to assess the full effect of the new measures, as trade and customs statistics become available with a lag and some provisions of the customs enforcement order have not yet been fully implemented.