Uzbekistan Approves Fiscal Targets Through 2029

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Uzbekistan has established its medium-term fiscal policy targets for 2027–2029, according to the Fiscal Strategy for the upcoming three-year period.

The document provides for maintaining economic growth at a rate of approximately 7% per year, stabilizing inflation within the 5% target from 2027, and holding the budget deficit to no more than 3% of GDP and public debt to no more than 40% of GDP.

According to national forecasts, GDP growth will reach 8.1% in 2026, 6.9% in 2027, 7.1% in 2028, and 7.4% in 2029. The primary drivers will be industry, expanding at rates of 6.7–7.9%, and market services, growing at an annual pace of 14.3–15%. Agriculture is expected to expand by about 5%.

The strategy is aligned with the goal to expand the economy to over US$240 billion by 2030 under the Uzbekistan–2030 strategy.

To achieve this, the plan calls for establishing sustainable sources of growth, expanding private investment and exports, raising the country's sovereign credit rating to investment grade, and bringing Uzbekistan into the upper-middle-income country group.

The document cites the April IMF forecast, according to which global economic growth will slow from 3.4% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, while global inflation will accelerate from 4.1% to 4.4%. Despite external uncertainty, strong domestic economic activity is considered the basis for maintaining rapid growth rates.

Key policy priorities include broadening the budget revenue base by improving tax administration, reducing the shadow economy, and eliminating ineffective tax incentives, alongside targeted budget spending and strict compliance with fiscal rules.

Salaries of public sector employees, pensions, and social allowances will be increased at rates not lower than the inflation level.