Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — International rating agency Fitch Ratings assigned Jizzakh Region long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer default ratings of BB- on 16 October 2026, with a Stable Outlook. The region’s short-term ratings were set at B.
The ratings correspond to Fitch’s assessment of the region’s standalone credit profile at bb-. The agency expects Jizzakh Region’s debt payback ratio to remain below 9x through 2030. This assessment reflects a risk profile that Fitch considers weaker than average and a financial profile at the lower end of the aa category.
Fitch links the region’s risk profile to revenue volatility amid Uzbekistan’s tax and budget reforms.
The central government determines the composition of taxes and how they are distributed between levels of the budget. In 2025, transfers accounted for 51% of the region’s operating revenue, while taxes contributed 44%.
Transfers averaged 53% of operating revenue in 2021–2025. Fees and charges, some of which the region can adjust, accounted for just 4%.
The region also has limited scope to reduce spending.
In 2025, inflexible expenditure items accounted for 50% of total spending, while wages represented about 43% of operating expenses. Capital expenditure amounted to 9% of total spending. Average inflation in 2021–2025 stood at 10%.
Under Uzbekistan’s legislation, regional authorities cannot borrow on market terms. Jizzakh Region has previously received intergovernmental loans, but their volume has been moderate.
Liquidity is supported by cash balances, which stood at 41 billion soums at the end of 2025. Most of these funds are earmarked for specific purposes.
The region can also obtain short-term budget loans from the central government to cover temporary cash-flow gaps.
Fitch assesses the region’s financial profile positively. Under the agency’s rating scenario, the debt payback ratio is projected to peak at 8.1x in 2030. The debt service coverage ratio is expected to average 2x in 2028–2030, while the budgetary debt burden is projected at around 20% in 2026–2030.
The scenario assumes average annual growth of 8% in operating revenue. Operating expenditure is expected to grow faster, at 9.5% annually. The annual deficit in capital operations is projected at 544 billion soums, while the average cost of debt is estimated at 14.7%.
Fitch identified Ferghana Region and Tashkent as Jizzakh Region’s closest peers. Both have ratings of BB- with Stable Outlooks. Jizzakh’s rating is higher than that of Türkiye’s Balıkesir province, rated B+, but lower than that of Kazakhstan’s Aktobe Region, rated BBB-.
According to Fitch, Jizzakh is one of Uzbekistan’s rapidly developing regions, with economic growth exceeding the national average.
The region accounts for 4% of Uzbekistan’s population. Gross regional product per capita is approximately 70% of the national average. Agriculture and industry contribute nearly equal shares to the regional economy.
Fitch could downgrade the ratings if the debt payback ratio rises above 9x. An upgrade is possible if the ratio improves sustainably to around 7x.
