Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — International rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Navoiyazot JSC’s long-term issuer default rating at BB- on 16 October 2026, maintaining a Positive Outlook.
The company’s rating is one notch below Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating of BB, which also carries a Positive Outlook. The state is Navoiyazot’s sole ultimate shareholder, and Fitch considers government support for the company highly likely. The Positive Outlook is aligned with that of Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating.
Fitch assesses Navoiyazot’s standalone credit profile at b-. The assessment is constrained by its relatively small asset base, limited revenue diversification and need for investment in modernisation. The agency also cites weak financial flexibility, volatility in leverage, Uzbekistan’s developing operating environment and corporate governance shortcomings.
The government owns the company outright, controls its strategy and investment programme, and regulates prices for certain products.
Around 50% of Navoiyazot’s debt is backed by state guarantees. The company receives financing from state-owned banks or the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Navoiyazot is Uzbekistan’s key domestic producer of agricultural fertilisers and also manufactures sodium cyanide, which is required by local mining companies.
The company is implementing an investment programme to modernise Soviet-era facilities, improve energy efficiency and expand production capacity. Management has budgeted about US$230 million in capital expenditure for 2026–2028.
Projects include an ammonium nitrate production complex and several deep-processing initiatives. They are expected to be financed through international loans without state guarantees, reducing the share of debt backed by government support. Fitch expects the main benefits from these projects to materialise from 2029.
A broader chemical investment programme in the cluster surrounding Navoiyazot is valued at approximately US$1 billion.
Most of these projects will be implemented by foreign investors. Navoiyazot will participate as a buyer of products, a raw material supplier or a minority partner.
The company’s profitability improved in 2025 as global fertiliser prices rose and the gap between domestic and international prices narrowed.
Fitch forecasts EBITDA to increase from US$237 million in 2025 to around US$290 million in 2026. EBITDA remained below US$200 million in 2023–2024. The EBITDA margin is expected to reach about 38% in 2026 before declining to around 26% in 2027–2029 as raw material costs rise and fertiliser prices normalise.
The agency considers the scope for reducing leverage limited because the investment cycle is continuing.
Capital expenditure is estimated at around 580 billion soums in 2026 and an average of 1.1 trillion soums annually in 2027–2029. Fitch also assumes that the company will distribute 50% of its profits as dividends.
At the end of June 2026, Navoiyazot held 196 billion soums in cash and had no access to revolving credit facilities. Fitch expects positive free cash flow in 2026, followed by negative free cash flow in 2027–2028. All of the company’s current liabilities are owed to state-owned banks or directly to the state.
Fitch also points to the limited independence of Navoiyazot’s board of directors and the company’s limited track record of publishing audited financial statements. The agency assigned an ESG score of 4 for each factor, which negatively affects the company’s credit profile.
The rating could be upgraded following an upgrade of Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating, stronger links between the company and the state, or a sustained reduction in leverage to below 4.5x EBITDA.
If the outlook on Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating is revised to Stable, Navoiyazot’s rating outlook would also be revised to Stable.
