Uzbekistan prepares strategy to manage rapid population growth

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Uzbekistan, whose population exceeded 38.2 million at the beginning of 2026 and could reach 58 million by 2050, is developing a national strategy for demographic resilience. The strategy represents the first attempt of its kind to transform rapid population growth from a challenge into a managed economic advantage.

Shohjahon Yusupov, head of the department for forecasting demography, employment, and living standards at the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Uzbekistan, announced the initiative during a session on using demographic data to attract investment at the Annual Meeting of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).

"Demographic resilience is not just a statistical issue. It is a matter of strategic management," Yusupov said.

Figures Defining the Agenda

According to data presented by the Uzbek ministry representative, more than 55.7 percent of the country's population is of working age, and more than 55 percent of citizens are under the age of 30. Approximately 780,000 young people enter the labor market annually. Projections indicate the population will reach 58 million by 2050 if the current growth rate of approximately 2 percent per year continues.

Fabio Losa, UNFPA regional advisor on demographic resilience for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, highlighted the scale of regional shifts, noting that more than 20 million residents of Central Asia will enter their productive and reproductive years over the next 25 years. "This is a clear picture. Demographic projections are reliable, and the recipes are known," Losa said.

Claus Beck, UNFPA deputy regional director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, specifically commended Uzbekistan's approach: "You are a young country, but you are already looking ahead to what comes next. This is very good, because many countries faced demographic challenges suddenly and found themselves unprepared."

Digital Census as a Starting Point

One of the key milestones mentioned during the session was the population census conducted in Uzbekistan, which was the first in more than three decades and the first to heavily utilize digital technologies. According to Irina Bychan, head of the demographic statistics department of the National Statistical Committee of Belarus, Uzbekistan set a record for the proportion of participants who completed the census via the internet, surpassing Kazakhstan, which previously held the leading position in the region.

Yusupov emphasized that data collection is only the starting point: "The key priority is not only collecting data, but its systematic integration into planning and budgeting at all levels. This will ensure that infrastructure, housing, and public services are directed to where the greatest demand will be in the future."

Strategy and Tools

The Ministry of Economy and Finance of Uzbekistan, in cooperation with UNFPA, is already implementing several initiatives. The Future Readiness Lab platform integrates foresight, innovation, and demographic statistics data into a single system for national decision-making. Concurrently, digital literacy training programs are being launched for civil servants. Deputy governors of districts and cities will be the first to undergo the training so that local leaders can independently analyze demographic trends and formulate budgets accordingly.

Regarding financing, Yusupov outlined a diversification of capital sources. Alongside state resources, the country is expanding the attraction of funds from international financial organizations, foreign direct investment, and capital markets. "The issuance of sovereign bonds, including green bonds, is becoming an increasingly important tool for attracting long-term capital," Yusupov said.

The session moderator noted Uzbekistan's recent listing on the London Stock Exchange as a practical execution of this strategy.

Demographic and Gender Dividends

Session participants agreed that a young population presents an opportunity that can only be realized if proper conditions are established. Beck from UNFPA pointed to the results of a global demographic youth survey, which showed that young people want to have children but postpone the decision until they have stable employment, housing, and positive expectations for the future. "You need to ask people what they want and be ready to hear the answer," Beck said.

Yusupov highlighted the concept of a gender dividend alongside the demographic one: "More than 55 percent of the population is under 30. Uzbekistan has the potential to benefit from both dividends, but only through inclusive investments that ensure quality education, productive employment, and equal opportunities, especially for women and youth."

Tigran Jrbashyan, a strategic advisor and institutional reform expert from Armenia, expanded on this point: "There is no investment more effective than investment in human capital. According to our calculations, it is four to five times more effective than any investment in roads, bridges, reservoirs, or factories."

Risk of Ghost Cities and the Role of Data

EDB representative Sevak Sarukhanyan warned about the downsides of demographic planning, noting that infrastructure projects relying on poor-quality or outdated data can turn into "ghost cities" and "ghost airports." As an example, he cited the Ciudad Real Airport in Spain, which was built for US$1 billion and sold three years later for US$10,000 due to an incorrect demographic forecast.

"There are no such cases in our region because we pay serious attention to all data, including demographic data," Sarukhanyan said, adding that the EDB already supports projects that directly utilize demographic analytics, such as transport modeling in Astana, digital healthcare, the GeoIntellect platform for small and medium-sized businesses, and the water resource management system in Kazakhstan.

Uzbekistan in a Regional Context

Against the backdrop of EDB member countries, Uzbekistan occupies a distinctive position. Armenia, Belarus, and Russia face aging populations and depopulation, and Kazakhstan is also moving in that direction. In contrast, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are in the phase of a demographic dividend — a rapid growth of the young, working-age population that, with the right policies, can drive the economy for decades to come.

Jrbashyan from Armenia pointed directly to a gap in the approaches of international organizations: "Unfortunately, most of them do not take this difference into account in their investments and policies. Yet we are talking about completely different societies with different demographic behavior."

The country, whose population constitutes nearly half of the total population of Central Asia, is finalizing a strategy intended to determine how the 780,000 young people entering the labor market each year will become capital rather than a burden.