Uzbekistan Business Confidence Hits Record High in Q2 2026

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The share of Uzbek entrepreneurs reporting improved business conditions reached 64% in the second quarter of 2026, up 3 percentage points from a year earlier and well above the average of more than 50% recorded over the past two years.

At the same time, the share of businesses expressing confidence in improved macroeconomic conditions over a three-year horizon rose to 82%, up from 66% in the second quarter of 2025. The figures come from the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, based on a business sentiment survey conducted in July 2026 across all regions of the country.

The survey covered 2,391 entrepreneurs from various sectors of the economy, who responded through social media.

The survey is based on alternative indicators drawn from entrepreneurs' own assessments and covers the business environment, economic activity, employment, business financial conditions and future expectations. Below is an analysis of the nationwide picture and regional differences.

Business environment: rising confidence amid persistent structural barriers

The nationwide increase in positive assessments, to 64% from 61% a year earlier, was accompanied by a fairly consistent set of factors that entrepreneurs identified as drivers of improvement.

In five of the six regional clusters, respondents cited the same four factors among the improvements: the quality of banking services, access to credit, the competitive environment and simplified licensing procedures.

The exception was the Jizzakh and Syrdarya regions, where road infrastructure appeared on the list in place of licensing. The consistent recurrence of these factors across regions points to a systemic, rather than localized, improvement in banking, lending and licensing.

The list of factors showing no significant change was more varied. The only item cited as unchanged in all six regional clusters was the level of market monopolization.

Administrative interference and customs tariffs were cited as unchanged in most regions but not all. In the survey covering Tashkent city and the Tashkent region, for example, tax administration and road infrastructure appeared among the unchanged factors instead.

Power supply disruptions were cited as an unchanged factor in most regions, including Tashkent, the Bukhara cluster, the Ferghana Valley and the Jizzakh cluster, but were not mentioned in this category in the surveys covering the Kashkadarya/Surkhandarya regions or Karakalpakstan/Khorezm.

In other words, monopolization is the only truly nationwide bottleneck in business perception, while other constraining factors vary by region.

Economic activity: capacity utilization rises amid energy disruptions

Indicators of real economic activity also showed positive momentum in the second quarter. The share of entrepreneurs reporting an increase in order volumes stood at 56%, with the largest contributions coming from construction, tourism, catering, handicrafts and manufacturing.

The most notable indicator was the increase in the share of businesses operating at relatively high capacity, which rose to 58% from 50% compared with the same period last year.

Within the country, however, there was pronounced regional polarization: the highest capacity utilization was recorded in the Ferghana, Namangan and Kashkadarya regions and in the city of Tashkent, while the figure was significantly lower in Karakalpakstan and the Bukhara, Syrdarya and Surkhandarya regions.

Notably, when explaining incomplete capacity utilization, entrepreneurs in most regions ranked power supply disruptions and insufficient domestic demand first or second among the causes.

The only exception was Karakalpakstan and the Khorezm region, where insufficient demand was not cited among the main causes at all, and power supply and logistics disruptions came to the fore instead.

In other regions, rising fuel prices, a shortage of working capital and logistics and supply disruptions were cited alongside power supply and demand as constraining factors, with the specific combination varying from region to region.

Employment: uneven growth in labor demand

Labor market activity remained stable nationwide, with 48% of businesses reporting increased demand for additional workers.

Looking ahead to the coming quarters, the strongest growth in labor demand is expected in the Khorezm, Samarkand, Jizzakh and Syrdarya regions, mainly in manufacturing, construction, tourism and the financial sector.

Employment was the one area where the survey recorded a clear divergence: in the Andijan, Namangan and Ferghana regions, the share of entrepreneurs reporting increased demand for labor fell by 14 percentage points, against a backdrop of broader cooling in business sentiment in that regional cluster, discussed in more detail below.

Business financial conditions: cautious rise in debt levels

The share of entrepreneurs reporting an increase in debt obligations over the past three months stood at 42%, while 45% of respondents expect debt levels to rise further, indicating that demand for credit resources continues to strengthen nationwide.

The regional picture here is also mixed. The most pronounced expected increase in demand for credit resources in the coming quarter is in the Navoi, Kashkadarya, Andijan and Jizzakh regions, while businesses in the Ferghana, Tashkent and Bukhara regions expect demand for credit to decline or remain unchanged.

Businesses expressing higher expected demand for borrowed funds were concentrated mainly in construction, manufacturing, agriculture, tourism and catering — capital-intensive and seasonal sectors.

Outlook: sustained rise in confidence in medium-term conditions

The survey's key indicator remains business confidence in improved economic conditions over a three-year horizon. Nationwide, this figure rose to 82%, up from 66% in the second quarter of 2025 — an increase of more than 15 percentage points over the year, which the Central Bank describes as a sign of strengthening business confidence in the economy's medium-term trajectory.

Regional analysis

Tashkent city and region

The share of positive assessments of business conditions was 53%, slightly above last year's level, with the most notable progress in construction, transport, manufacturing and trade. Capacity utilization rose more sharply here than anywhere else in the country, climbing to 61% from 43%.

The share of entrepreneurs reporting increased orders and production rose by 4 and 7 percentage points, respectively. Confidence in economic improvement over a three-year horizon stood at 82%, in line with the national average.

Bukhara, Navoi and Samarkand regions

This cluster showed the strongest positive momentum of any region: 69% of respondents reported improved conditions, up 8 percentage points from a year earlier; orders rose 11 percentage points to 64%; and confidence in economic improvement over a three-year horizon reached the highest regional level, at 84%. At the same time, the share of entrepreneurs reporting increased loan payments fell by 5 percentage points, which may indicate easing debt burdens or an absence of additional pressure related to loan servicing.

Andijan, Namangan and Ferghana regions

This was the only region where the survey recorded a deterioration in key business sentiment indicators: the share of positive assessments of business conditions fell to 66%, down 4 percentage points; demand for additional labor dropped 14 percentage points; expectations for order growth in the next quarter fell 14 percentage points to 54%; and confidence in economic improvement over a three-year horizon, at 81%, was slightly lower than a year earlier. At the same time, this region recorded one of the sharpest increases in capacity utilization, rising to 70% from 57%, creating an apparent contradiction: businesses in the Ferghana Valley are operating at higher capacity while assessing the business environment and demand outlook less optimistically. A possible explanation suggested by the survey data is that the rise in capacity utilization reflects fuller use of existing resources rather than expanding demand, amid more cautious expectations for new orders.

Kashkadarya and Surkhandarya regions

Sixty-one percent of respondents reported improved conditions, most notably in tourism, finance, agriculture and education. Capacity utilization rose to 58% from 48%, an increase of 10 percentage points. A distinctive feature of this region was stabilizing demand for credit resources: no additional need for credit was recorded in household services, trade or agriculture. Confidence in economic improvement over a three-year horizon stood at 84%, significantly above last year's level.

Jizzakh and Syrdarya regions

Sixty-six percent of respondents reported improved conditions, up 4 percentage points, while demand for additional labor rose more than in any other region, up 11 percentage points to 56%. Confidence in economic improvement over a three-year horizon showed the sharpest increase of any region, rising to 80% from 64%, up 16 percentage points, making this cluster the region with the most rapidly improving expectations.

Republic of Karakalpakstan and Khorezm region

Sixty-five percent of respondents reported improved conditions, up 9 percentage points, one of the highest increases among all regions. Orders, production and energy consumption rose by 4, 7 and 6 percentage points, respectively. Unlike most other regions, this cluster recorded an increase, rather than a decrease, in the share of entrepreneurs expecting higher loan payments, which may reflect stronger sentiment in favor of additional financing for growth. Confidence in economic improvement over a three-year horizon stood at 81%.

Conclusions

Comparing regions reveals several cross-cutting patterns in the second-quarter 2026 survey.

First, the improvement in the business environment, as perceived by businesses, is nationwide but uneven in intensity. The strongest increases in positive assessments were recorded in the Bukhara/Navoi/Samarkand cluster, up 8 percentage points, and Karakalpakstan/Khorezm, up 9 percentage points, while the Andijan/Namangan/Ferghana cluster was the only region to show a decline, down 4 percentage points.

Second, the only truly nationwide structural constraint that businesses in all six regional clusters described as unchanged is the level of market monopolization. Other constraining factors, including power supply, administrative interference, customs tariffs and tax administration, were cited in this category in most but not all regions, distinguishing them from the factors of clear progress, namely banking services, lending, competition and, in five of six clusters, licensing.

Third, power supply disruptions and insufficient demand were the most frequently cited reasons for incomplete capacity utilization in most regions, with the exception of Karakalpakstan and the Khorezm region, where insufficient demand did not appear among the main causes.

Fourth, despite diverging regional trends in current assessments, confidence in medium-term, three-year prospects rose in nearly all regions and exceeds 80% in most of them, which the Central Bank interprets as a sign of strengthening long-term business confidence in the country's economic trajectory.