Geopolitics Escalation Intensifies Pressure on Metals Market

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The escalation of the situation in the Middle East has strengthened the influence of geopolitical factors on the global metals market.

A rise in oil prices following new US strikes on Iran and reduced activity in the Strait of Hormuz has raised inflationary expectations and reinforced forecasts that the US Federal Reserve will maintain a tight monetary policy. This was stated in an analytical review by Alpari expert Anna Bodrova.

According to the analyst's assessment, against this background, gold is trading at around US$4,100 per troy ounce after falling by more than 1% a day earlier. Silver is holding below the US$60 per ounce mark, having lost over 3% during the previous trading session.

While precious metals were previously supported by weak US labor market data, which lowered expectations of interest rate hikes, the new escalation of the conflict has altered market sentiment.

According to Bodrova, additional pressure was exerted on the market by the United States revoking Iran's oil export waiver, which intensified fears regarding potential disruptions in energy supplies and accelerating inflation.

Platinum, according to the review, is trading below US$1,650 per ounce, remaining near its lowest levels since the end of 2025. At the same time, the analyst believes that the potential for further decline is limited due to the ongoing structural deficit in the global market, limited production in South Africa, declining inventories, and stable demand from the automotive industry.

In the industrial segment, the expert notes that the dynamics remain mixed. Copper is holding above US$6.15 per pound.

The market is supported by BHP's decision to increase production at one of the largest deposits in Chile, reflecting expectations of sustainable global demand linked to the development of energy infrastructure, electrification, and artificial intelligence technologies.

Aluminum, conversely, is demonstrating a recovery. Its price rose to approximately US$3,120 per ton after hitting a four-month low. According to Bodrova, the market is supported by a reduction in inventories at London Metal Exchange warehouses, expectations of a supply deficit, and a weakening of the dollar following the publication of US labor market statistics.

According to the Alpari analyst's assessment, the future dynamics of the metals market will largely depend on the development of the geopolitical situation and expectations regarding further decisions by the US Federal Reserve.

At the same time, industrial metals continue to be supported by long-term demand from the energy, infrastructure, and high-tech sectors, as well as ongoing supply constraints.