Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Uzbekistan has emerged as the main centre of electricity demand, generation, transit and renewable energy integration in Central Asia's interconnected power system, but the rapid expansion of solar and wind capacity is outpacing the grid's ability to accommodate new generation, according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).
In its report, "Energy Without Borders: The Architecture of Energy Connectivity in Central Asia," the bank identifies winter gas shortages, overloaded transmission networks and growing renewable energy curtailment as major challenges facing Uzbekistan's electricity sector.
Uzbekistan accounts for 23.1 GW of the interconnected Central Asian power system's total installed capacity of 38.5 GW, making it the largest generating country within the regional network.
As of 1 January 2025, Uzbekistan's installed generation capacity comprised 17.5 GW of thermal power, 2.25 GW of hydropower, 0.9 GW of wind power and 2.4 GW of solar power.
Other participants in the interconnected system have considerably smaller generating capacities. Tajikistan has 6.5 GW, southern Kazakhstan 4.77 GW and Kyrgyzstan 4.13 GW.
The report identifies Uzbekistan's thermal generation fleet, including combined-cycle gas turbines, gas turbines and gas-engine units, alongside renewable energy facilities and battery energy storage systems (BESS), as its principal energy resources.
"Uzbekistan is a major centre of demand and currently the centre of renewable energy deployment," EDB senior analyst Demir Kabylbayev said.
Despite its substantial installed capacity, Uzbekistan faces constraints on electricity generation during the autumn and winter months because of natural gas shortages and domestic transmission bottlenecks.
The report estimates gas-related generation shortfalls at 100–400 MW.
Kabylbayev explained that winter demand for natural gas increases across all consumer groups, leaving power plants with insufficient fuel when electricity demand rises sharply. Generation capacity is consequently constrained by the gas pressure available in pipelines.
At the hour of peak annual demand in 2024, the interconnected Central Asian power system had 36.4 GW of installed capacity, but only 28.8 GW was available for generation.
Fuel-related restrictions across the region reduced available capacity by 1,081 MW.
Kabylbayev warned that building additional power plants would not necessarily eliminate electricity shortages if new facilities were located beyond congested transmission points or lacked sufficient gas during peak demand.
Under such circumstances, the system could have substantial installed capacity while still experiencing shortages at critical hours.
He also noted that underutilised power plants become economically inefficient, ultimately affecting investors.
Renewable energy expansion presents another challenge.
Under Uzbekistan's strategic development plans, renewable energy capacity could reach 25 GW by 2030.
Of the 62.8 GW of new generating capacity announced by Central Asian countries through 2035, Uzbekistan accounts for 25 GW.
Conservative projections indicate that Uzbekistan's renewable energy capacity will reach 11.4 GW by 2028, alongside 4.3 GW of energy storage capacity.
However, the expansion is expected to increase the amount of renewable electricity that cannot be absorbed by the power system.
According to calculations by the Energia Coordination and Dispatch Centre, Uzbekistan is expected to utilise 13.1 billion kWh of renewable electricity in 2026 while curtailing 2.1 billion kWh.
In 2027, utilised renewable generation is projected to reach 18.5 billion kWh, with 2.9 billion kWh curtailed.
By 2028, these figures are expected to increase to 22.1 billion kWh and 3.5 billion kWh, respectively.
Curtailment is projected to be particularly significant during transitional months, potentially reaching 45.7% in September and 37.5% in May.
"Under a conservative assessment, perhaps every seventh kilowatt-hour will have to be curtailed in 2028," Kabylbayev said.
He noted that the calculations were prepared in 2024, while Uzbekistan has since been expanding renewable generation more rapidly than anticipated. As a result, the original targets are likely to be exceeded.
One underlying challenge is the variability of solar and wind generation, which cannot be controlled in the same way as conventional power plants.
"We do not know when there will be sunshine or wind," Kabylbayev explained.
The EDB report warns that renewable energy curtailment reduces the amount of electricity effectively utilised, weakens project economics and increases requirements for reserve generating capacity.
Payment obligations under long-term electricity purchase agreements may remain in force even when output is curtailed, potentially transferring additional costs to electricity buyers, system operators or consumers.
The report identifies regional coordination as a potential means of reducing these risks.
Stronger cross-border interconnections, access to flexible hydropower generation, energy storage and more accurate market price signals could allow surplus renewable electricity to be absorbed across a wider regional market.
Transmission congestion is already affecting several important sections of Uzbekistan's electricity network.
Power flows between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan through the Ferghana power hub reached 2,940 MW, compared with permissible levels of 1,800 MW or 2,600 MW, representing 113% of the applicable limit.
The domestic Sogdiana–Guzar–Talimarjan transmission section operated at 105% of its permitted capacity, carrying 1,570 MW against a limit of 1,500 MW.
Network congestion also restricts Uzbekistan's ability to import hydropower from neighbouring countries.
According to Kabylbayev, Tajikistan has already become a balancing resource for Uzbekistan's solar generation, with summer electricity supplies to Uzbekistan exceeding winter deliveries by two to three times.
However, limitations affecting 220 kV transmission networks prevent some of this electricity from reaching its intended destination.
Kabylbayev cited the Surkhandarya transmission hub, where congestion required approximately 40% of planned summer hydropower supplies to be redirected to other regions of Tajikistan.
To improve renewable energy integration, the EDB proposes combining battery energy storage systems for rapid balancing, conventional hydropower for operational regulation and seasonal flexibility, and pumped-storage hydropower plants to shift surplus daytime renewable electricity to periods of higher demand.
Uzbekistan's estimated pumped-storage hydropower potential stands at 5,030 MW across 16 facilities in seven regions.
The Tashkent region accounts for 46% of this potential, equivalent to 2.3 GW.
Among the proposed projects are the Upper Pskem pumped-storage plant, with 600 MW of capacity and an estimated cost of US$1.02 billion, and the Khodjikent project, with 200 MW and an estimated cost of US$320 million.
The Karateren project would provide 500 MW at a cost of US$477 million, while the Aydarkul project would have 300 MW of capacity and cost US$350 million.
Together, the four projects represent 1,600 MW of planned capacity and estimated investment of US$2.167 billion, with potential annual electricity generation of up to 2.8 billion kWh.
The report cautions that the value of these projects must be verified through detailed power system operating calculations.
Kabylbayev explained that pumped-storage facilities use surplus electricity to pump water to a higher elevation, allowing it to be released for power generation when electricity is needed.
"These 5 GW will operate more efficiently if we have regional coordination," he said.
The EDB also identifies several priority transmission infrastructure projects directly involving Uzbekistan.
The first priority group, expected to deliver relatively rapid benefits and linked to the World Bank's REMIT programme, includes reconstruction of the Kristall–Yulduz connection with a second 220 kV circuit between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan through the Ferghana hub.
It also includes a second 500 kV transmission line between Shymkent and the Tashkent Thermal Power Plant, connecting Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
An alternative route between Shymkent and the Khalka substation is also under consideration.
Second-priority projects include the Datka–Sughd transit connection with an interconnection at the Lochin substation, the Syrdarya/ACWA–Sughd project financed by the Asian Development Bank, and the Muruntau–Shymkent connection.
The Muruntau–Shymkent project was proposed by Uzbekistan's National Dispatch Centre and National Electric Grids of Uzbekistan to relieve congestion in southwestern transmission sections.
Third-priority strategic options include the Atamyrat–Guzar and Dashoguz–Muruntau–Kyzylorda connections, intended to facilitate transmission of generating capacity from Turkmenistan.
The EDB estimates that more extensive integration of Central Asia's electricity systems could generate gross regional benefits of up to US$640 million annually.
Net benefits under partial and deeper integration scenarios are estimated at approximately US$120 million.
The available materials do not provide a separate estimate of the economic benefits specifically attributable to Uzbekistan.
The report emphasises that the gains from regional electricity integration would not be distributed equally among participating countries.
One country could benefit from reduced renewable energy curtailment, another from electricity transit revenues, and a third from compensation for providing flexible hydropower capacity.
The authors therefore recommend establishing mechanisms for distributing the economic benefits of regional energy integration in advance.
