Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Inflation expectations among Uzbekistan's population fell to 8.7% for the next 12 months in September 2026, down from 9.8% in August. Business inflation expectations also declined, reaching 9.2% compared with 9.6% a month earlier, according to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan.
The findings are based on a monthly survey involving 2,726 residents and 1,043 business entities, the Central Bank said.
The reported figures represent weighted average estimates. The median inflation expectation among households remained unchanged at 8% in September, while the median among businesses increased from 8% to 9%.
Perceived inflation among the population also declined to 9.2% in September from 10.1% in August. The median estimate stood at 8%.
Among different population groups, pensioners recorded the highest inflation expectations at 12.4%. They were followed by employees in household services at 10.6% and transport services at 9.9%.
The lowest expectations were recorded among retail workers at 7.8% and students at 7.9%.
Among businesses, the highest inflation expectations were reported in transport services at 10.7%, handicrafts at 9.8% and trade at 9.7%. Tourism businesses recorded the lowest expectations at 7.5%.
Regional differences in inflation expectations
Tashkent recorded the highest inflation expectations among residents at 11.6%. The lowest figures were reported in Khorezm region at 6.8% and Namangan region at 7.1%.
In the capital, 17% of respondents expected prices to rise by 17% or more. In Khorezm region, 70% of those surveyed forecast inflation of no more than 8%.
Among businesses, the highest expectations were recorded in Samarkand region at 10.2% and Ferghana region at 10.1%. Kashkadarya region had the lowest figure at 7.5%.
Inflation expectations also varied considerably by income level. Respondents earning more than 30 million soums per month expected inflation to reach 14.4%, while those earning between 20 million and 30 million soums forecast 11.3%.
Among respondents with monthly incomes of no more than 2 million soums, the expected inflation rate was 7.6%.
A similar pattern emerged in assessments of perceived inflation. The figure reached 15.9% among respondents earning more than 30 million soums and 7.7% among those earning up to 2 million soums.
Fuel and energy costs remain the main drivers of price concerns
Residents continued to identify rising fuel and energy prices as the leading factor behind inflation, cited by 50% of respondents. Higher utility costs were mentioned by 38%.
The share of respondents identifying utility costs as a factor declined from 53% in August. Meanwhile, the proportion expecting higher prices for essential food products increased from 21% to 31%.
The share of residents citing monopolies and artificial price increases rose from 21% to 30%, while the proportion pointing to exchange rate fluctuations increased from 14% to 22%.
Businesses also most frequently identified higher fuel and energy prices, cited by 52% of respondents, and rising utility costs, mentioned by 38%.
The proportion of businesses pointing to higher raw material prices increased from 19% to 37%. The share citing a high tax burden rose from 15% in August to 29%, while concerns about deteriorating competitive conditions increased from 16% to 25%.
Meat, dairy products and fuel lead perceived price increases
Among goods and services that residents believe have experienced the sharpest price increases, meat and dairy products ranked first, cited by 56% of respondents.
Fuel and petrol were mentioned by 53%, while electricity and natural gas were identified by 36%.
The proportion of residents reporting higher transport fares and transport service prices increased from 13% in August to 24% in September. The share citing higher prices at cafes and restaurants rose from 13% to 22%.
By contrast, fewer respondents reported rising prices for fruit and vegetables. Their share declined to 17% from 27% in August.
