Uzbekistan Evaluates Middle East Risks to Its EconomyUzbekistan Evaluates Middle East Risks to Its Economy

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The government of Uzbekistan has assessed the potential impact of Middle East tensions on the country's economy, according to the Fiscal Strategy for 2027–2029. Geopolitical conflicts, commodity market volatility, and global inflationary pressures were named as the primary risks to macroeconomic and fiscal stability in the short and medium term.

Direct trade dependence on the region is estimated to be relatively low. Uzbekistan's trade turnover with Middle Eastern countries — Iran, Israel, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia — totaled US$2.1 billion in 2025, accounting for 2.6% of its foreign trade turnover. Exports to these countries reached US$933 million (2.8% of total exports), of which US$720 million went to the UAE, US$156 million to Iran, and US$32.9 million to Israel. Deliveries mainly consisted of services, textiles, food products, petroleum products, and metals. Imports from the region stood at US$1.2 billion, or 2.4% of total volume.

At the same time, the document notes that conflicts in the Middle East are already leading to disruptions in global supply chains and rising world prices for oil, mineral fertilizers, and food. These processes could affect Uzbekistan's economy through complications in foreign trade and logistics, rising import prices, and a slowdown in the global economy.

To quantify these risks, the strategy calculated an alternative scenario alongside the baseline scenario, assuming an intensification of external and internal shocks.

Monitoring of macroeconomic risks, state contingent liabilities, and obligations under public-private partnership (PPP) projects will be conducted on an ongoing basis, with response measures developed and published based on the results of the analysis.