Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Moody’s Ratings has assigned the Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex (AGMK) a long-term corporate family rating of Ba2 for the first time. The agency also assigned the company a Ba2-PD probability of default rating and a ba3 baseline credit assessment. The rating outlook is stable.
In assessing AGMK, Moody’s applied its methodology for government-related issuers. The Government of Uzbekistan owns 98.7% of the company’s shares.
The Ba2 rating reflects AGMK’s standalone creditworthiness, Uzbekistan’s Ba2 sovereign rating, the high dependence between the company and the government in the event of default, and the high likelihood of extraordinary government support if the company faces financial difficulties.
A key factor in the assessment was AGMK’s strategic importance to the country’s economy. In 2025, the company accounted for 5% of Uzbekistan’s GDP and 5.8% of state budget revenues. AGMK accounted for 100% of the country’s copper production, 90% of silver production and 20% of gold production.
Moody’s also highlighted AGMK’s vertical integration, covering ore mining and processing, smelting, refining and chemical production. The company’s operational diversification is expected to increase following the launch of the Yoshlik-I mine. According to AGMK’s expectations, once the project reaches full capacity from 2029, total copper production will roughly double, while gold production will increase by about 70%.
The company also has significant reserves and long estimated operating lives for its core assets. The figure stands at 90 years for the Kalmakyr mine and 48 years for the Yoshlik-I project. The assessment is based on the national reserves classification and a February 2023 mineral resource estimate under the JORC standard.
Moody’s assessed AGMK’s credit metrics at the end of 2025 as robust. The agency-adjusted gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio stood at 1.8x, while EBITDA less capital expenditure to interest expense was 5.1x.
At the same time, Moody’s expects a moderate deterioration in these metrics as the company implements its large-scale investment program.
Among the factors constraining the credit assessment, the agency highlighted the concentration of operations in the Almalyk district of Tashkent region. In 2025, about 80% of copper and gold production came from the Kalmakyr mine. The company’s metrics are also sensitive to fluctuations in metal prices and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Uzbek soum.
Significant capital expenditures will require the company to raise additional debt and create execution risks for the Yoshlik-I expansion project.
Dividend payments also add pressure on liquidity. At the same time, the government has adjusted dividend requirements to take into account investment needs and debt servicing, while AGMK is developing a new dividend policy that would link payouts to its debt burden. The policy is expected to be approved by 2027.
Moody’s also noted the development of new company policies covering dividends, debt management and liquidity.
The agency expects these measures to strengthen financial discipline. AGMK itself has set a target net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.5x for the investment cycle through 2030.
The high likelihood of extraordinary government support takes into account preferential financing from state-controlled entities.
In particular, the Reconstruction and Development Fund provided AGMK with US$459 million in loans at interest rates of 2.25–5% and maturities of five to 15 years. Support also includes state guarantees for part of the debt and the capitalization of strategic projects. In 2024, about 12 trillion soums of the company’s debt was converted into equity.
Moody’s also considers the company’s domestic product supply agreements to be an additional supporting factor. In 2025, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s Agency for Precious Metals purchased 94% of AGMK’s gold and 100% of its silver at prices linked to London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) benchmarks.
On ESG, Moody’s assigned AGMK an ESG credit impact score of CIS-2, indicating that the overall impact of ESG factors on the rating is immaterial.
The company’s corporate governance profile was assessed at G-3. This reflects expectations of a balanced financial policy and a prudent approach to liquidity management.
The stable outlook reflects Moody’s expectation that AGMK’s operating and financial performance, credit metrics and liquidity will not deteriorate materially. The outlook also incorporates the expectation that the high likelihood of government support for the company will remain in place.
An upgrade of AGMK’s rating could occur if Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating is upgraded, provided there is no material deterioration in the company’s performance and the likelihood of government support does not decline.
The baseline credit assessment could be upgraded if AGMK significantly improves its operational diversification and liquidity, adopts a more conservative liquidity management policy, and sustainably maintains gross debt to EBITDA below 2.0x and EBITDA less capital expenditure to interest expense above 4.5x.
A downgrade could occur if Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating is downgraded or AGMK’s operating and financial performance deteriorates materially.
Moody’s could revise the baseline credit assessment downward if gross debt to EBITDA remains above 3.0x and EBITDA less capital expenditure to interest expense remains below 2.5x.
