India Risks Missing Uzbekistan's Renewable Energy Market

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) —India has the technological and institutional capacity to become a long-term partner for Uzbekistan in renewable energy, but it is significantly behind Gulf countries and China in terms of actual project involvement, according to an analysis by Observer Research Foundation Middle East (ORF ME) in Dubai prepared by research fellow Parul Bakhshi.

Scale of the transition

According to ORF ME, Uzbekistan's installed renewable energy capacity increased from 1,883 MW in 2016 to more than 10,000 MW by the end of 2025, expanding more than fivefold in less than a decade. More than half of this capacity is generated by solar power. The country aims to increase the share of renewables in electricity generation to 50% by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has attracted more than US$35 billion in investment into its energy sector through competitive international tenders for large-scale projects.

Gulf states and China lead investment

The analysis identifies companies from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and China as the main foreign drivers of renewable energy expansion in Uzbekistan.

The UAE's Masdar has operated in Uzbekistan since 2019 and has built five solar power plants with a combined capacity of 1,247 MW, a 500 MW wind farm and a 63 MW battery energy storage system.

Saudi Arabia's ACWA Power has built a project portfolio worth around US$15 billion and aims to expand it to US$25 billion by the end of the decade.

Chinese investment in Uzbekistan's solar and wind energy sectors under the Belt and Road Initiative totaled about US$1.4 billion in 2023 alone. Chinese companies also built the country's first utility-scale solar power plant, a 400 MW photovoltaic facility in Andijan region.

Structural drivers of the energy transition

The authors say the expansion of renewable energy is driven not only by climate goals but also by structural vulnerabilities in Uzbekistan's energy system. Natural gas accounts for 83% of the country's energy mix and 82% of electricity generation.

Since 2020, Uzbekistan has shifted from being a net energy exporter to a net importer. The value of processed fuel exports more than halved between 2019 and 2023 to about US$1 billion, while imports more than doubled to US$2.68 billion.

ORF ME estimates that 66% of the country's transmission lines and 74% of its substations have been in operation for more than 30 years, reflecting decades of underinvestment during the Soviet period.

The government aims to add 12 GW of variable renewable energy capacity by 2030, including 7 GW of solar power, 5 GW of wind power and 1.5 GW of hydropower.

Areas for Indian participation

The analysts identify solar energy as the most obvious area for cooperation, noting that India's production-linked incentive (PLI) program has increased domestic solar module manufacturing capacity to more than 120 GW and solar cell capacity to 29.3 GW as of mid-2025.

As examples of Indian commercial engagement in Uzbekistan, the authors cite discussions between representatives of Adani Group and Reliance Industries and Uzbek officials, as well as NTPC's participation in solar project tenders and consulting projects in the gas sector.

The analysis also highlights a 2021 memorandum of understanding between India's National Institute of Solar Energy (NISE) and Uzbekistan's International Solar Energy Institute (ISEI), covering cooperation in photovoltaic equipment manufacturing and technology transfer. However, the authors say the agreement remains largely unimplemented at the institutional level.

In wind energy, India, which has annual wind turbine manufacturing capacity of around 18,000 MW and the world's fourth-largest installed wind power capacity, could supply technology and engineering services. Uzbekistan's installed wind power capacity increased from 1 MW to 1,652 MW between 2016 and 2025.

The analysts also identify critical minerals as another area for cooperation. Uzbekistan has Central Asia's second-largest reserves of copper, molybdenum, gold and other minerals important for the energy transition, while only 16 of the country's 71 identified deposits are currently being developed.

At the 14th session of the India-Uzbekistan Intergovernmental Commission in June 2026, India identified supplies of critical minerals as a priority area for energy cooperation.

Bilateral context

India and Uzbekistan have maintained a strategic partnership since 2011, with bilateral trade reaching US$1.32 billion.

At the fourth India-Central Asia Dialogue, held in New Delhi in June 2025 and attended by the foreign ministers of all five Central Asian states, the joint statement referred to support for the International Solar Alliance, joint exploration of rare earth minerals and support for Uzbekistan's accession to the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

The ORF ME authors conclude that India's commercial presence remains modest compared with the positions already established by companies from the Gulf states and China, and that partnerships being formed during Uzbekistan's current phase of rapid renewable energy expansion will shape the country's energy sector for decades to come.