IMF: Uzbekistan’s GDP Grew 7.7% in 2025, 6.8% Seen in 2026

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concluded its annual consultations with Uzbekistan and noted the country's sustained economic growth alongside gradually declining inflation, the IMF said on Thursday.

Uzbekistan's real GDP grew by 7.7% in 2025, while growth accelerated to 8.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. The IMF forecasts economic growth of 6.8% in 2026 and 6.0% in 2027.

Inflation slowed to 7.0% year-on-year in April 2026, compared with 9.8% at the end of 2024. The IMF expects inflation to decline to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s 5% target by the end of 2027, provided that tight monetary policy is maintained.

The consolidated budget deficit narrowed to 2.1% of GDP in 2025 from 3.0% in 2024, partly due to high gold prices. The current account deficit decreased to 3.9% of GDP and is projected to fall further to 3.2% in 2026. The IMF described international reserves as adequate, forecasting that they will cover more than 12 months of imports by the end of 2026.

Among the risks identified by the IMF are a deterioration in global economic conditions stemming from geopolitical tensions and the possibility of overheating domestic demand. According to the fund, economic activity already exceeds its potential level.

In its monetary policy recommendations, the IMF called for maintaining a tight policy stance and exchange rate flexibility, while gradually phasing out targeted and concessional lending practices. In the fiscal sphere, the fund recommended limiting expenditure adjustments during the year and considering the introduction of a ceiling on the primary deficit excluding natural resource revenues in order to reduce budget procyclicality.

The IMF identified privatization and governance reform of state-owned enterprises, accelerated accession to the World Trade Organization, and the removal of barriers to labour market participation for women and young people as key structural priorities.

Article IV consultations are conducted by the IMF with member states, generally on an annual basis.