Fitch Revises Navoiyuran Outlook to Positive

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook on Uzbekistan’s state-owned enterprise Navoiyuran from stable to positive, while affirming its long-term issuer default rating at “BB”.

The agency also affirmed the company’s senior unsecured debt rating at “BB” with a Recovery Rating of “RR4”.

The rating action follows a similar revision of Uzbekistan’s sovereign outlook on 3 June 2026 to “BB/Positive”. Fitch said the company’s rating is aligned with the sovereign level in accordance with its methodology for state-linked entities.

Navoiyuran’s standalone credit profile was maintained at “bb-”, reflecting its strong position in the global uranium mining industry, the use of low-cost in-situ recovery (ISR) technology, and strong cash flow generation. At the same time, the assessment reflects exposure to uranium price volatility, limited business scale, and operating conditions in Uzbekistan.

According to Fitch, Navoiyuran is the sixth-largest uranium producer in the world, accounting for about 8.4% of global output. Production reached 7,000 tonnes of U₃O₈ in 2025, compared with 5,200 tonnes a year earlier.

The agency expects the company’s EBITDA to exceed US$800 million in 2026 under favorable price conditions, before declining to US$550–600 million by 2029 as prices normalize.

The company’s financial profile is characterized by high capital expenditures and a dividend policy of 50% of profits, resulting in negative free cash flow.

Debt leverage is expected to increase to around 0.9x by 2030.

The resource base has expanded significantly, with uranium reserves estimated at 96,700 tonnes as of 1 January 2026, compared with 63,400 tonnes a year earlier. The increase was driven by state transfers and field development.

The company exports uranium to Japan, Canada, the United States, India, and South Korea, as well as to traders, using rail routes via Saint Petersburg and alternative corridors through the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus.

Fitch noted that Navoiyuran’s rating is fully dependent on Uzbekistan’s sovereign credit profile, given the company’s 100% state ownership and strategic importance to the national economy.