IATA: Air Travel Demand Fell 2.2% in May

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported a 2.2% decline in global passenger air travel demand in May 2026 compared to the same period last year. Excluding Middle Eastern countries, the indicator, on the contrary, grew by 0.7%.

According to the published data, total passenger traffic, measured in passenger-kilometers, fell by 2.2%, while capacity shrank by 2.3%. The seat load factor reached 83.5%, which became a record high for May and 0.1 percentage points above the level of last year.

International traffic contracted by 1.6%, but increased by 3.1% when excluding the Middle East. Capacity on international routes decreased by 2.4%, and the load factor stood at 83.7%. Domestic traffic fell by 3.1% alongside a 2.1% reduction in capacity and a decrease in the load factor to 83.0%.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh stated that the drop in demand in May was linked to the consequences of the war in the Middle East. According to him, the main decline fell on the region's airlines, whose passenger traffic fell by 28.4% in annual terms — a notable improvement compared to the 46.6% drop in April, which demonstrates the resilience of the region. Walsh also noted a reduction in demand in North America and Asia, primarily related to domestic market conditions in the US and China.

The head of IATA emphasized that overall May demand remains quite resilient despite high fuel prices and airfares. He pointed out that the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging factor, but challenges related to the war are likely to persist for some time. According to him, oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain, and it will take time before the decline in oil prices is reflected in the cost of jet fuel. Walsh noted that airlines operating with a 2.0% margin will be forced to continue testing demand resilience with increased fares aimed at compensating for increased fuel costs.

By region, the largest decline was recorded among Middle Eastern airlines — passenger traffic decreased by 28.8%, capacity fell by 24.3%, and the load factor was 76.1%. IATA noted that the consequences of the war in Iran continue to negatively impact indicators in the year-on-year comparison, but the effect is weakening on a month-to-month basis: the rate of decline in May turned out to be almost half of April's.

A positive dynamic was shown by airlines in Latin America (+10.5%), Africa (+8.9%), Europe (+3.8%), and the Asia-Pacific region (+1.3%). IATA noted a 15% increase in direct traffic between Europe and Asia, reflecting an ongoing transition to direct flights between the regions. North American airlines increased demand by 1.0%.

In domestic markets, aggregate demand decreased by 3.1%. The most notable drop was recorded in China — by 6.2%, which may be related to increased fares and the later arrival of the Dragon Boat Festival this year. In the US, domestic demand contracted by 1.9%. At the same time, most other domestic markets showed moderate growth, including India (+10.1%), Japan (+2.8%), and Brazil (+2.8%).