Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The total installed capacity of operating nuclear power plants worldwide could more than triple by 2060 amid rising electricity demand and efforts by countries to strengthen energy security.
The projection is contained in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) 46th annual report, “Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates to 2060.”
The updated forecasts were presented by IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi during the Agency’s 70th General Conference in Vienna. For the first time, the report’s analytical horizon was extended from 2050 to 2060.
At the end of 2025, 413 power reactors were operating worldwide, with a total installed electrical capacity of 377.1 GW.
Under the IAEA’s high-case scenario, global nuclear capacity is projected to reach 1,045 GW by 2050 and 1,284 GW by 2060. The 2060 figure would be about 3.4 times the 2025 level. Last year, the projection for 2050 stood at 992 GW.
The low-case scenario projects installed nuclear capacity reaching 696 GW by 2060, which would still be nearly twice the level at the end of 2025.
According to Grossi, the IAEA projections confirm the growing role of nuclear energy in meeting global electricity demand. At the same time, realizing the sector’s potential will require timely investment in new capacity and extensions of the operating lives of existing reactors.
In 2025, electricity generation from nuclear power plants increased by 1.1% to 2,689.1 TWh. Global electricity generation increased by 2.7%, however, causing nuclear power’s share of global generation to decline from 8.7% in 2024 to 8.4% in 2025.
The most significant growth in nuclear capacity is projected in Central and Eastern Asia. Under the high-case scenario, total nuclear capacity in the region could increase from 114 GW in 2025 to 407 GW by 2060.
Electricity generation from nuclear power plants in the region could increase nearly fivefold.
Small modular reactors (SMRs) also feature prominently in the projections. Under the high-case scenario, they could account for up to 28% of new nuclear capacity added through 2060, while under the low-case scenario their share could reach 23%. The largest share of SMRs is projected in North America, where they could account for about 60% of new capacity. In Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, their share could reach about 40% under both scenarios.
The IAEA also highlights the need to account for the retirement of existing power units. Two out of every three reactors currently operating have been in service for more than 30 years, while more than 45% of the global reactor fleet has surpassed the 40-year mark.
Under the high-case scenario, about one-third of the reactors operating in 2025 will have been permanently shut down by 2060. Under the low-case scenario, that share could reach about two-thirds.
In 2025, seven power reactors with a combined capacity of 2.8 GW were retired worldwide. At the same time, three new reactors with a combined capacity of 3.0 GW were connected to power grids, while construction began on another 12 reactors with a total planned capacity of 14.3 GW.
The report also notes the development of modernization and long-term operation programs for existing power units, as well as government support mechanisms for nuclear power plants.
The IAEA projections are based on data from the Power Reactor Information System (PRIS), the results of the Agency’s annual consultancy meeting of experts on nuclear capacity projections, and the joint IAEA-OECD Nuclear Energy Agency report “Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand.”
