EADB Forecasts 7.9% GDP Growth for Uzbekistan in 2026

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Eurasian Development Bank forecasts that Uzbekistan’s economy will accelerate to 7.9% growth in 2026, according to its June macroeconomic outlook for 2026–2028.

The bank said this would mark the strongest growth rate in the past decade, excluding the post-pandemic recovery in 2021. It expects the economy to maintain high growth of around 7% in 2027–2028.

In the first quarter of 2026, Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 8.7% year-on-year. Services, industry and construction were the main contributors to the expansion.

The share of industry in the economy increased to 29.2%. Manufacturing output rose by 8.5% year-on-year in January–April. Construction grew by 14.1%, making it the fastest-growing major sector.

Investment activity was a key driver of growth. Fixed capital investment increased by 29.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 5.4% a year earlier. Foreign sources accounted for 53.6% of total investment, while loans made up 15.2%.

Inflation in Uzbekistan continued to slow, reaching its lowest level in a decade. Consumer prices rose 7.0% year-on-year in April 2026, compared with 7.3% at the end of 2025.

The EDB forecasts inflation will slow to 6.8% by the end of 2026, fall to 5.7% in 2027 and approach the Central Bank’s 5% target in 2028.

The Central Bank kept its key policy rate at 14% in April, maintaining a cautious stance to support disinflation.

Analysts expect monetary policy easing to begin in the second half of 2026, with the rate likely falling to around 13.5% by year-end. Under the baseline scenario, it is projected at 12% at the end of 2027 and 11% at the end of 2028.

The average annual exchange rate is forecast at 12,200 soum per US dollar in 2026. The soum is expected to be supported by foreign investment inflows and strong remittance growth, which increased by 16% in 2025. Moderate depreciation is projected for 2027–2028, to 12,900 and 14,100 soum per US dollar respectively, as imports expand during an active investment cycle.

The bank also highlighted gold export revenues as a key growth factor, noting that gold accounts for 69% of the country’s merchandise exports. Fiscal support under the “New Uzbekistan” programme will allocate 18.5 trillion soum in 2026 for social and industrial infrastructure development.

Risks to the outlook include a potential deterioration in the trade balance due to rising imports and higher international logistics costs if energy market instability persists. Rising transport costs could increase inflationary pressure and slow investment activity, particularly in projects with high import content for machinery and equipment.