Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Kazakhstan needs to address two investment priorities simultaneously: attract more capital and improve the efficiency of its allocation across the economy.
This conclusion was reached by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) experts in a study titled “Investment Trajectories for Economic Development: A Capital-Centric Approach to Growth in Emerging Economies.” BCG reported the findings.
According to BCG, Kazakhstan will require around US$94 billion in additional investment in 2025–2029 to achieve its target economic growth rates. In 2025, the economic growth target was fully met, at around 6.5% based on the physical volume index, while the investment attraction target was achieved by only about one-third: of the planned US$18.8 billion, around US$6.1 billion was attracted.
Capital-centric approach
The study focuses on an economic policy approach based on managing key factors of production: capital, natural resources, human capital, physical infrastructure and technological infrastructure. For Kazakhstan, the authors believe capital — its volume, cost, availability and allocation efficiency — is becoming one of the key constraints on future growth.
Mikhail Volkov, Managing Director and Partner at BCG, said Kazakhstan has the potential to significantly expand the amount of capital available to finance investment projects and long-term growth.
Foreign direct investment remains an important source of capital. However, over the next decade, international debt and institutional financing, new co-investment mechanisms and domestic financial resources are expected to play an increasingly important role, he said.
According to Volkov, the next challenge is not only to expand the supply of capital, but also to generate sufficient demand from investment-ready and economically viable projects and companies capable of attracting financing on market terms.
Capital accumulation indicators
Kazakhstan’s average gross capital formation stood at around 27.7% of GDP in 2019–2024 and reached 28.2% in 2025. BCG estimates that to sustain long-term annual growth of 6–7%, this figure needs to approach 30–33% of GDP. This will require not only more capital, but also a broader range of financing sources and a sufficient number of high-quality projects capable of attracting and productively using that capital.
Existing capital structure
According to the study, Kazakhstan already has a significant range of institutions and resources involved in capital accumulation and allocation. Quasi-public-sector enterprises accounted for around 14.7% of gross value added in 2025, while around 6,400 such organizations were registered in the country at the end of the year. This partly overlaps with more than 26,000 legal entities with state ownership.
The financial system also plays a significant role. BCG estimates that around 47% of banking-sector assets are collectively accounted for by government bonds, securities, loans to quasi-public-sector entities and mandatory reserves.
Another major source of capital is long-term national savings. As of 1 April 2026, Kazakhstan’s pension savings exceeded 26.8 trillion tenge, increasing by around 17.9% year on year.
In 2025, investment in fixed assets in Kazakhstan amounted to around 23 trillion tenge. Enterprises’ own funds were the main source, accounting for around 61.5%, while the state budget provided about 21.9% and bank loans around 4.5%.
The study’s authors believe this structure leaves room for developing additional channels of long-term financing, including bank lending, debt and equity markets, institutional investors, as well as greater access to international debt and institutional capital, green financing and co-investment funds involving international financial institutions.
Within the capital-centric approach, BCG experts identify three complementary ways to expand the capital base: reducing capital outflows and encouraging reinvestment, attracting new external capital, including foreign direct investment, and mobilizing domestic financial resources.
International experience
The study’s authors note that there is no universal model for such a transformation. Malaysia used foreign capital as one of the tools to develop export-oriented manufacturing, gradually complementing it with local production capabilities and infrastructure. South Korea relied more heavily on domestic capital mobilization, its national financial system and active government coordination of investment during its industrialization phase.
For Kazakhstan, BCG believes the experience of the UAE may also be relevant. The country used public capital and infrastructure investment to create new growth platforms. Singapore, meanwhile, at different stages of development, gradually shifted from attracting capital to developing human capital, finance and high-tech industries.
Konstantin Polunin, BCG Director and Partner and one of the study’s authors, said access to capital and the availability of projects were only part of the challenge, as investments generate maximum returns only when combined with human capital, technology and entrepreneurship.
Polunin said the balance among key factors of production — capital, people, infrastructure, technology and resources — could become a standalone focus of economic policy. Managing these factors would allow Kazakhstan not only to sustain growth rates, but also to improve the quality of that growth.
