Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The banking systems of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan went through a phase of rapid expansion in 2021–2025 that became one of the main drivers of financial intermediation in the region, according to an analysis by Forvis Mazars. The study, prepared by a team of Forvis Mazars experts, presents a comprehensive picture of how bank assets, loan portfolios, deposit bases, capital adequacy and profitability changed in the three countries over five years. Beyond recording quantitative highs, the authors assess the quality of that growth: how stable the funding base is, how lending compares with GDP growth, and what risks accelerated balance-sheet expansion carries.
Kazakhstan retains the region's largest banking sector, with assets rising from US$87 billion to US$141 billion and the ratio of assets to GDP reaching 47%. Uzbekistan shows the most balanced trajectory, with assets increasing almost 1.9-fold to US$77 billion, moderate lending growth and return on equity (ROE) close to levels seen in developed banking systems. Kyrgyzstan recorded the fastest financial deepening, with assets growing 3.5-fold to US$14 billion and the assets-to-GDP ratio reaching 64%, the highest of the three countries. That rapid growth, however, came with the greatest volatility in lending and profitability, which calls for particularly careful assessment of asset quality and capital resilience.
As bank intermediation becomes an increasingly important factor in economic growth, the Forvis Mazars analysis highlights both the region's successes and its vulnerabilities. International comparisons show that Central Asian countries still lag developed economies in financial depth, while on some bank profitability indicators they already significantly exceed them. The authors describe this gap as key to understanding where the region's banking sector will head over the next five years.
Kazakhstan. Banking sector assets increased 62% between 2021 and 2025, from US$87 billion to US$141 billion. Growth accelerated most noticeably in 2025, when assets rose 19%, while the assets-to-GDP ratio climbed from 40% in 2024 to 47% in 2025. This means the banking sector is not only growing in absolute terms but also playing an increasingly important role in redistributing the economy's financial resources, broadly expanding banks' capacity to finance business, consumption and investment. Kazakhstan's banking depth nonetheless remains moderate by international standards; the World Bank notes that credit and banking depth indicators are generally substantially higher in financially developed economies.
Uzbekistan. Banking assets rose almost 1.9-fold, from US$41 billion to US$77 billion. Growth accelerated sharply in 2025, to 28%, and the assets-to-GDP ratio increased from 49% to 52%, indicating that the banking sector's role recovered after financial depth declined in 2024. For the economy, the expansion means a greater volume of financial intermediation and potentially better access to resources for companies and households. Uzbekistan's assets-to-GDP ratio is close to Kazakhstan's, and its assets are far larger than Kyrgyzstan's in absolute terms, but like the other countries in the region it remains less financially deep than the world's most developed banking systems.
Kyrgyzstan. Banking assets grew 3.5-fold, from US$4 billion to US$14 billion. Growth accelerated to 54% in 2025, and the assets-to-GDP ratio reached 64%, the highest among the three countries. This points to rapid deepening of bank intermediation, with the banking system becoming a much more significant channel for accumulating and redistributing financial resources within the economy. At the same time, such rapid growth requires an assessment of its quality, particularly of how quickly lending, liabilities and risks in the banking sector are rising.
Loan portfolio and credit intermediation
Kazakhstan. The loan portfolio grew from US$47 billion in 2021 to US$87 billion in 2025. After slowing to 3% in 2024, lending growth jumped to 28% in 2025, and the loans-to-GDP ratio rose to 29%, the highest over the period. This means bank credit has again become a more significant source of financing for the economy and could support investment and business activity. However, lending growth well above the pace of economic growth requires monitoring of loan quality, as a rapid increase in leverage can raise the vulnerability of banks and borrowers. Internationally, the ratio remains relatively moderate: the World Bank notes that private credit to GDP is considerably higher in financially developed and high-income economies.
Uzbekistan. The loan portfolio increased from US$30 billion to US$50 billion. Lending growth accelerated to 23% in 2025, but the loans-to-GDP ratio remained at 34%, well below 2021–2023 levels, indicating that credit expansion coincided with faster growth in nominal GDP. For the economy, this means bank financing became more available in absolute terms without a corresponding increase in the economy's dependence on bank credit. This trend may indicate some decline in credit depth relative to the size of the economy.
Kyrgyzstan. The loan portfolio grew from US$2.1 billion to US$6 billion, with growth accelerating to 45% in 2025. The loans-to-GDP ratio rose to 27%, the highest over the period, making banks an increasingly important source of financing for economic activity. Importantly, faster lending has been accompanied by greater credit intermediation rather than only a rise in the nominal volume of loans. Such rapid credit expansion, however, makes control of asset quality and borrowers' capacity to service debt more important.
Deposits and deposit intermediation
Kazakhstan. The deposit base grew from US$60 billion in 2021 to US$96 billion in 2025 despite significant volatility during the period. After surging 53% in 2024, deposits fell 5% in 2025 but remained well above historical levels. The deposits-to-GDP ratio stood at 32%, compared with 35% a year earlier. Deposits reflect the banking system's ability to mobilize domestic savings and build a funding base for lending. The 2025 decline could limit growth in banks' own funding, although the absolute size of the deposit base remains high.
Uzbekistan. Deposits rose 2.5-fold, from US$14 billion to US$35 billion, with a particularly strong 45% increase in 2025. The deposits-to-GDP ratio rose to 24%, pointing to some recovery in banks' role in accumulating the economy's financial resources. Rapid deposit growth creates a more stable domestic funding base for lending and reduces banks' relative dependence on external funding sources.
Kyrgyzstan. The deposit base more than tripled, from US$3 billion to US$10 billion. Unlike in Kazakhstan, growth was steady throughout the period, and the deposits-to-GDP ratio increased from 31% to 46%. This is one of the strongest indicators of financial deepening among those examined, with households and businesses increasingly using the banking system to hold and accumulate funds. This trend could strengthen banks' ability to finance the economy from domestic resources.
Capital-to-liabilities ratio
Kazakhstan. The ratio of capital to liabilities fell from 23.4% in 2021 to 17.6% in 2025, with a particularly marked decline in 2025. This means the banking sector's liabilities grew faster than its capital base. For the economy, this may result from active expansion of banking operations and the raising of deposit and other funding, but it also means a smaller relative capital cushion per unit of liabilities. If lending continues to grow rapidly, adequate capital becomes more important for the sector's stability.
Uzbekistan. The ratio was the most stable of the three, at around 17–18% throughout the period, and stood at 17.1% in 2025. This indicates a relatively steady balance between banks' own and borrowed funding even as the sector expanded, reducing the likelihood of an abrupt change in banks' financial stability due to growing liabilities. However, the absolute level cannot be interpreted as a capital adequacy standard without taking the calculation methodology into account.
Kyrgyzstan. The ratio stood at 22% in 2025, down from a peak of 25.6% in 2022. Despite the decline, it remained higher than in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. This indicates a relatively larger capital base relative to liabilities and, all else being equal, a greater capacity of banks to absorb losses. High capitalization alone, however, does not mean an absence of risk, as stability also depends on asset quality, risk concentration and liquidity.
Return on equity
Kazakhstan. ROE remained high throughout the period, at about 30% in 2021–2022, peaking at 36.7% in 2023 and standing at 25.5% in 2025. Even after the 2025 decline, it remained well above levels typical of large developed banking systems. For the economy, high bank profitability means the financial sector can generate substantial internal capital that can be directed toward further lending. However, persistently high ROE may also reflect banks' high margins, the structure of the market and the cost of credit, so the figure alone is not an unequivocal sign of a more efficient economy.
Uzbekistan. Banking sector ROE rose from 6.1% in 2021 to 14.2% in 2023, fell to 6.6% in 2024 and recovered to 11.5% in 2025. That is much closer to international levels of bank profitability; by comparison, the ROE of EU banks in 2025 was around 9–10%. This allows Uzbekistan's banking sector to be characterized as having lower margins than Kazakhstan's but being profitable enough to build capital and grow further.
Kyrgyzstan. The country stands out for exceptionally high ROE volatility. The indicator rose from 7.8% in 2021 to 43.4% in 2022, stayed above 30% in 2023–2024 and fell to 15.3% in 2025. Even after normalizing, it remains above levels at major banks in the EU and the euro zone. Such high ROE can support rapid capital accumulation and banking sector expansion, but sharp swings in profitability call for cautious interpretation, as they may stem not only from fundamental efficiency gains but also from changes in interest income, funding costs, asset quality or the size of the capital base.
All three banking systems expanded actively in 2021–2025. Kazakhstan retains the largest banking sector and combines substantial lending with high profitability, although its capital-to-liabilities ratio declined in 2025. Uzbekistan shows the most balanced performance, with steady growth in assets and deposits, more moderate lending growth and ROE close to levels in developed banking systems. Kyrgyzstan shows the fastest financial deepening, especially in assets and deposits, but also the highest volatility in lending and profitability.
For the economy, this means bank intermediation is becoming an increasingly important driver of growth in all three countries, but the quality of further expansion will depend on banks' ability to maintain capital, asset quality and a stable funding base. International comparisons show the region's countries still have room to deepen their financial systems, while some bank profitability indicators already significantly exceed those of developed markets.
Forvis Mazars is an international, independent, and integrated professional services firm providing audit, accounting, tax, and consulting services. The company possesses deep expertise in analyzing economic and geopolitical developments across Central Asian nations, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.
This report and analysis have been prepared by the Forvis Mazars Central Asia team based on comprehensive research of macroeconomic trends, investment flows, trade patterns, and geopolitical factors shaping regional development.
