Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The World Trade Organization has published its 2026 World Trade Report, titled “A Critical Juncture for the World Trading System.”
According to WTO economists, depending on the scenario, the gap between strengthening multilateral trade rules and allowing them to erode would be equivalent to 5–10% of global real GDP by 2050.
The report was presented on 15 September, the first day of the WTO Public Forum, the World Trade Organization said.
The report examines three possible scenarios for the development of the global trading system. If multilateral rules are strengthened, global GDP could increase by 2.9% by 2050, while global exports could rise by 17.9% compared with the baseline trajectory.
This scenario envisages broader commitments to market opening, new multilateral rules for digital trade and services, expanded WTO membership and a balanced approach to security issues.
The other two scenarios describe an erosion of multilateral rules.
In a “geofragmented world,” where trade cooperation is organized around geopolitical blocs, global GDP would decline by 5.1%, while exports would fall by 18.6%.
In a “free trade agreement world,” where multilateral cooperation is replaced by a network of such agreements, GDP would decrease by 6.9% and exports by 26.9%.
According to the WTO, least-developed countries would be the most vulnerable. They currently account for less than 1% of global trade.
Under a strengthened multilateral system, their GDP could increase by 7.7%, while in a “free trade agreement world” it would decline by 16.5% — more than three times the losses projected for high-income economies.
For high-income economies, the GDP gain from strengthening the system is estimated at around US$1.7 trillion in 2023 prices, mainly due to lower costs in services trade.
“The global trading landscape has changed significantly, but the fundamental logic of the system — that all economies benefit from cooperation rather than unilateral action — remains as relevant as ever,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.
She noted that around 72% of global merchandise trade is still conducted under WTO most-favoured-nation terms.
The report’s authors note that many of the system’s current challenges are partly a result of its own successes. Over eight decades, the system has helped reduce trade barriers and contributed to nearly 50-fold growth in global trade.
At the same time, the share of low- and middle-income economies in global merchandise trade increased from 23% in 1995 to 45% in 2024.
The report identifies four trends that are making cooperation more difficult: shifts in economic power; the growing role of government intervention, including industrial policy; changes in the nature of trade driven by digitalization, global value chains and the green transition; and rising geopolitical tensions.
The report does not offer a ready-made plan for WTO reform but points to areas where changes to the rules may be needed.
According to the document, preserving the benefits of the multilateral trading system does not mean preserving the status quo. The task for WTO members is to adapt cooperation to a more integrated, multipolar and diverse global economy.
The report’s main findings were presented by WTO Chief Economist Robert Staiger.
They were subsequently discussed by participants in a panel discussion, including representatives of the United Kingdom, the Philippines, Yale University, the London School of Economics and the International Chamber of Commerce.
