WTO: Goods Trade Index Falls to 101.7 Amid Middle East Conflict

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) goods trade barometer stood at 101.7 points in April 2026, down slightly from 102.3 in January, indicating a possible early slowdown in global merchandise trade growth, according to a report released on Friday.

Despite the decline, the index remains above the baseline value of 100, which indicates alignment with long-term trends, meaning trade volumes continue to remain above average levels. Quarterly merchandise trade volumes have exceeded trend values since early 2025.

The WTO noted that the negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East and high energy prices is being partially offset by a sharp rise in demand for electronic components, driven by investments in artificial intelligence.

Among all sub-indices, electronic components showed the strongest deviation above the baseline, reaching 105.5 points and remaining firmly above trend levels.

Air freight and container shipping indices also signaled expansion in trade, standing at 102.2 and 102.4 points respectively, although growth momentum has slowed compared with previous months.

The export orders index — a key leading indicator of demand for traded goods — slightly exceeded the baseline at 100.5 points. Agricultural raw materials and automotive products indices were slightly below trend at 98.9 and 99.8 points respectively.

Overall, the component indices indicate resilience in global trade, pointing to relatively stable growth in trade volumes, the WTO said.

According to the WTO Secretariat’s latest Trade Outlook and Statistics report published on 19 March, merchandise trade growth in 2026 is projected at 1.9% under the baseline scenario.

Under a scenario of higher energy prices reflecting spillover effects from the Middle East conflict, growth could fall to 1.4%. Sustained investment in artificial intelligence could add 0.5 percentage points to growth.

The next WTO trade forecast is scheduled for publication in October 2026.

The WTO goods trade barometer is a composite leading indicator based on six components: export orders, international air freight, container port throughput, automotive production and sales, trade in electronic components, and agricultural raw materials.

It is published quarterly and provides an early assessment of the trajectory of global trade relative to long-term trends.