Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Households and businesses in Uzbekistan are gradually moving away from the assumption that the US dollar exchange rate should rise by 5–10% every year.
Changes in the foreign exchange market are reducing the exchange rate’s influence on inflation expectations, Central Bank Deputy Chairman Nodirbek Achilov said at a press conference on 4 November. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan reported his remarks.
According to Achilov, the exchange rate had long been the main factor shaping households’ and businesses’ expectations of future price increases.
“As you know, until 2025, the exchange rate was predominantly on an upward trend. Exchange rate movements accounted for almost 60% of inflation expectations,” he said.
The situation began to change in 2025. Increased foreign currency supply and two-way exchange rate fluctuations have reduced the influence of this factor on inflation expectations, Achilov explained. The changing structure of expectations is taken into account when preparing macroeconomic forecasts and making decisions on the policy rate, he added.
According to the Central Bank’s survey, household inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 8.7% in September 2026, from 9.8% in August.
The figure stood at 11.5% in December 2025. Business inflation expectations declined to 9.2%, compared with 9.6% a month earlier and 11.1% in December last year.
In September, 22% of surveyed households cited exchange rate movements as a possible cause of price increases, up from 14% in August.
However, this factor was still mentioned less frequently than several others. Households most often linked expected price increases to higher fuel and energy prices, cited by 50% of respondents compared with 52% in August, and rising utility tariffs, cited by 38% against 53%.
Higher prices for essential food products were mentioned by 31% of respondents, monopoly practices and artificial price increases by 30%, higher wages and pensions by 29%, and rising transport costs by 26%.
Businesses also most frequently cited higher fuel and energy prices (52%) and utility costs (38%). Meanwhile, the share of businesses expecting price pressures from more expensive raw materials and supplies rose from 19% to 37% over the month. The proportion citing a high tax burden increased from 15% to 29%.
Since 2025, the Central Bank has also been separately surveying financial experts, forming a third group alongside households and businesses.
“Financial experts’ inflation expectations are around 6.3%. In other words, they expect inflation to be significantly lower in a year than households and businesses do,” Achilov said.
Annual inflation stood at 6.4% in September, including 7% for services, 6.3% for food products and 5.8% for non-food goods.
Policy rate decisions affect the economy with a lag of up to 16–18 months. For this reason, the regulator considers not only current inflation but also inflation expectations.
“The decline in inflation expectations to 8.7% was one of the reasons why a reduction in the policy rate to 13.5% was considered today,” the deputy chairman said. If the downward trend continues across all three groups, the possibility of monetary policy easing may be discussed again at upcoming Board meetings.
On 4 November, the Central Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 14% per annum, citing strong domestic demand and inflation risks. The regulator said the rate could fall to a single-digit level in 2027–2029 if inflation slows sustainably to 5%.
The soum has strengthened against the US dollar since the beginning of 2025. It gained almost 7% against the dollar in 2025 and a further 1.9% in the first nine months of 2026.
However, the trade deficit remains high. In late August, Central Bank Chairman Timur Ishmetov said the regulator would maintain a floating exchange rate and would not manage it through administrative measures.
