Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 to 7% from 6.5%, partly due to increases in heating and hot water tariffs that turned out to be higher than initially estimated.
Samigjon Inogamov, Director of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Department, explained the revised forecast at a press conference on 4 November. The Central Bank reported the remarks.
According to Inogamov, increases in heating and hot water tariffs had already been included in the previous forecast of 6.5%. However, the announced tariff adjustments were somewhat higher than expected.
“The announced parameters turned out to be somewhat higher. We have therefore included them in the updated forecast, revising our end-of-year inflation estimate from 6.5% to 7%,” he said.
The department director said the tariff changes were among the important factors behind the Central Bank Board’s decision to keep the policy rate at 14% and maintain tight monetary conditions.
A journalist from Vaqt.uz raised the issue at the press conference, asking whether the Central Bank had factored in a planned 30% increase in heating tariffs and its possible impact on inflation expectations among households.
Central Bank Deputy Chairman Nodirbek Achilov said the calculations already included all announced changes to regulated prices, including heating tariffs.
“As with liquefied gas, we have accounted for the one-off impact of the heating tariff increase in our current forecast. Our forecasts for next year also include all changes announced so far. The 7% inflation forecast already incorporates all these factors,” Achilov said.
The Central Bank Board did not consider raising the policy rate in response to the tariff increases on 4 November. It discussed only two options: keeping the rate at 14% or lowering it to 13.5%.
“According to our calculations, the initial impact of the tariff changes will be short-term and relatively small. Therefore, the possibility of raising the policy rate was not discussed by the Board today,” Achilov explained.
The regulator assessed not only the direct impact of higher prices for certain services but also the risk that increases could spread to other goods and services.
“We consider it appropriate to continue tight monetary policy to mitigate the secondary effects of tariff changes,” the deputy chairman said.
According to Achilov, the direct impact of tariff adjustments is expected to be largely one-off. Tight monetary conditions are intended to limit their effect on inflation expectations and persistent components of inflation.
Achilov also said the government had предусмотрed social support measures for households. These are expected to ease the impact of higher tariffs on family incomes and purchasing power.
