Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Uzbekistan's population stood at 39.02 million on 1 January 2026, 786,900 people or 2.1% higher than previously estimated, following a revision of population data for 2010–2026, the National Statistics Committee said.
The revised estimate for 1 January 2026 was 39.02 million. The final census count as of 15 January 2026 was 39.05 million, reflecting population changes during the first two weeks of January.
The revision followed the country's first population census since 1989. Previously, annual population estimates had been calculated by adding natural growth and net migration to the results of the 1989 census. Over time, the gap between those calculations and the actual population had widened.
The review covered every year from 2010 to 2026, using figures as of 1 January. International experts recommended this period because revisions covering a longer timeframe can increase statistical uncertainty. Methodological support was provided by an international expert with technical assistance from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
The population was recalculated backwards from the census results using the demographic balancing equation, broken down by sex and age. Calculations were made for individual districts and cities, with separate estimates for urban and rural populations. The review also accounted for 19 administrative and territorial changes between 2010 and 2026.
The numbers of registered births, deaths, arrivals, departures, marriages and divorces were not changed. Only rates per 1,000 people were recalculated to reflect the revised population figures.
Population estimates revised upwards across most groups
The revised population estimates are higher than the previous figures for every year covered. For 2011–2026, the difference ranges from 565,700 to 786,900 people, or 1.9% to 2.1%.
The discrepancy for 2010 is larger, at 1.21 million people, or 4.3%. The committee attributed this to a one-off adjustment made to the population figure as of 1 January 2011. That adjustment followed a sample survey conducted from 21 to 30 April 2011, covering 10% of the population in each district and city. It caused a sharp increase in the previously published population series for early 2011.
The revised estimate for 1 January 2026 put the male population at 19.75 million, 496,500 or 2.6% above the previous figure. The female population was estimated at 19.27 million, an increase of 290,400 or 1.5%.
Men's share of the population rose from 50.4% to 50.6%. The revised figures show 102.5 men for every 100 women, compared with the previous estimate of 101.5.
Urban population rises by 1.8 million
The largest change concerned the balance between urban and rural residents.
The urban population was revised upwards by 1.79 million to 21.26 million people as of 1 January 2026. The rural population was revised downwards by 1.01 million to 17.76 million. The urban share of the population increased from 50.9% to 54.5%.
The committee explained that previous estimates were based on permanent registration. Some people live in cities but remain registered in rural areas. Moreover, moving from a village to a city within the same district is not counted as migration.
During the census, people were recorded according to their actual place of residence.
Age structure: more older men, fewer people aged 25–34
Population estimates increased in 12 of the 14 age groups. The largest increase was among people aged 40–49, whose number rose by 210,500 or 4.5%.
The number of people aged 50–59 increased by 120,900 or 3.5%. The 20–24 age group grew by 105,800 or 4.1%, while the number of people aged 16–19 rose by 74,100 or 3%.
The number of children aged 0–15 increased by 244,100 or 2%, reaching 12.51 million. This included 60,600 more children aged 3–5, an increase of 2.3%; 38,300 more children aged 6–7, up 2.5%; and 104,600 more children aged 8–15, up 1.9%.
Only two age groups had lower revised estimates. The number of people aged 25–34 was reduced by 120,000 or 2%, including a decline of 90,000 or 3.3% among those aged 25–29. The revised estimates included 66,200 fewer men and 53,800 fewer women in these groups.
The number of people aged 60 and older increased by 121,300 or 3.2%. The population aged 65 and above rose by 87,100 or 3.6%.
Almost all of the increase among older people was attributed to men. The revised count included 217,700 more men aged 50 and older, compared with just 24,500 additional women in the same age range. The number of women aged 65 and older was actually 14,200 lower than previously estimated.
Among people aged 65 and above, there are now 88.4 men for every 100 women, compared with the previous estimate of 79.9. The increase in the male population exceeded the increase in the female population by 206,100. Almost 94% of this difference was accounted for by people aged 50 and older.
Average age reaches 29.6
The average age of Uzbekistan's population on 1 January 2026 was revised to 29.6 years, compared with the previous estimate of 29.5. In 2010, the average age was 27, meaning the population has aged by 2.6 years over the period.
Average age increased by around 0.2 years annually in 2010–2019, slowed to 0.1 years per year in 2020–2024, and rose by 0.2 years again in 2025. The committee attributed the slowdown to high birth rates during those years.
Women were 1.1 years older than men on average, at 30.2 and 29.1 years respectively. The average age was 30.1 years in urban areas and 29.1 years in rural areas.
Since 2010, the average age of rural residents has increased by 3.1 years, compared with 2.2 years for urban residents. The gap between the two groups narrowed from 1.9 to one year.
Tashkent had the oldest population, with an average age of 33.6 years, followed by Navoi region at 31 and Karakalpakstan at 30.9. The youngest populations were in Surkhandarya region at 27.4 years, Kashkadarya region at 27.8 and Jizzakh region at 27.9.
Average age increased most rapidly in Karakalpakstan, by four years since 2010, and in Khorezm region, by 3.6 years. The smallest increases were recorded in Namangan region, at two years, and Andijan and Surkhandarya regions, at 2.1 years each.
Demographic pressure on working-age people increases
The working-age population, defined as men aged 16–59 and women aged 16–54, stood at 21.73 million on 1 January 2026, or 55.7% of the total population. This was 403,200 or 1.9% above the previous estimate.
The number of people above working age reached 4.79 million, an increase of 139,600 or 3%.
There were 796 children and older people for every 1,000 people of working age, compared with the previous estimate of 793.1. This included 575.8 children and 220.2 people above working age.
Between 2010 and 2026, the population above working age increased 2.3 times, from 2.13 million to 4.79 million. The working-age population grew by 21.6%, while the number of children aged 0–15 increased by 35.7%.
The number of older people per 1,000 working-age residents rose from 118.9 to 220.2, an increase of 1.9 times. The overall dependency ratio was lowest in 2013, at 619, and has risen every year since.
The highest overall dependency ratios were recorded in Surkhandarya region at 847.8, Andijan region at 833.4 and Kashkadarya region at 829.6. The lowest were in Tashkent city at 696.5 and Khorezm region at 731.5.
Tashkent had the highest number of older people per 1,000 working-age residents, at 278.6, followed by Bukhara region at 240.2. The lowest figures were recorded in Surkhandarya region at 184.2 and Jizzakh region at 186.9.
Life expectancy revised to 76.4 years
Life expectancy at birth in 2025 was revised upwards by one year to 76.4 years, from the previous estimate of 75.4.
The committee said the number of deaths remained unchanged, while the revised population figures showed larger populations in the corresponding age groups. This reduced mortality rates and raised the estimated life expectancy.
The adjustments varied by year. For 2010–2019, revised life expectancy was 0.1–0.3 years below the previous estimates. For 2020–2025, it was 0.6–1 year higher.
The revised data show that life expectancy increased by 3.6 years between 2010 and 2025, from 72.8 to 76.4 years. Previously, the increase had been estimated at 2.4 years, from 73 to 75.4 years. The decline in 2020 was linked to higher mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Life expectancy in 2025 stood at 75 years for men and 77.9 years for women. Since 2010, it has increased by four years for men and 3.2 years for women, narrowing the gap from 3.7 to 2.9 years.
For urban residents, life expectancy was revised from 75.7 to 77 years. For rural residents, it increased from 74.8 to 75.7 years. The gap between urban and rural areas narrowed from 2.8 years in 2010 to 1.3 years in 2025.
The committee cautioned that these figures may differ from actual conditions because deaths are recorded according to permanent registration, while the revised population figures are based on actual places of residence. A person living in a city but registered in a rural area, for example, is counted in rural death statistics.
The highest life expectancy was recorded in Tashkent at 79.6 years, followed by Navoi region at 78.7 and Karakalpakstan at 78. The lowest figures were in Samarkand region at 74.7 years, Surkhandarya region at 74.8 and Kashkadarya region at 75.
Life expectancy increased in 12 of the country's 14 regions. It was lower than the previous estimate only in Jizzakh region, by one year, and Samarkand region, by 0.1 years.
The largest increases were recorded in Karakalpakstan, at 5.1 years; Syrdarya and Tashkent regions, at 2.7 years; Tashkent city, at 2.5 years; and Navoi region, at 2.2 years. Karakalpakstan moved from among the regions with the lowest life expectancy under the previous estimates to the leading group.
Fertility higher in rural areas and lower in cities
The revised total fertility rate for Uzbekistan in 2025 was 3.21 children per woman, compared with the previous estimate of 3.20. Between 2010 and 2025, the national adjustment did not exceed 0.07 in any year.
The changes were more pronounced in the urban and rural breakdowns. The fertility rate among urban women was revised downwards for every year, reaching 2.80 children per woman in 2025, compared with the previous estimate of 3.00.
For rural women, the rate has been revised upwards from 2017 onwards. In 2025, it stood at 3.71, compared with the previous estimate of 3.41.
The gap between urban and rural fertility rates widened from 0.41 to 0.91 children per woman, more than doubling.
Previous data showed rural fertility declining from 3.51 in 2023 to 3.41 in 2025. The revised figures show a slight increase over the same period, from 3.67 to 3.71.
The decline in urban fertility was also sharper in the revised data: from 3.27 to 2.80, compared with the previous decrease from 3.39 to 3.00.
The committee said part of the difference was due to the methodology. Births are recorded according to the mother's place of permanent registration. If a woman lives in a city but remains registered in a rural area, her child is included in rural birth statistics, while the mother is counted as an urban resident in the revised population figures.
The highest fertility rates were recorded in Surkhandarya region at 3.83, Kashkadarya region at 3.76 and Namangan region at 3.50. The lowest were in Tashkent region at 2.43, Karakalpakstan at 2.57 and Tashkent city at 2.75.
The largest downward revision was in Tashkent region, where the rate fell from 2.93 to 2.43.
Which population data should be used?
The revised population figures for 2010–2026 became official on 13 November 2026, while the previous series was moved to the archive.
The National Statistics Committee recommends using only the revised series when analysing population trends. Combining old and new figures would produce inconsistent comparisons.
Data for years before 2010 were not revised and therefore cannot be directly compared with the new series.
Indicators based on population size, including GDP per capita and the Sustainable Development Goals indicators, will be revised in stages. Full tables and methodological explanations are available in the Demography section of the SIAT website.
Under Presidential Decree No. PF-190 of 10 September 2026, the National Statistics Committee is to establish a population register based on the census results by the end of 2027. Population figures will subsequently be calculated and published using this register.
Under the Law on Population Census, a census must be conducted at least once every ten years.
