Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Uzbekistan's Agency for Strategic Development and Reforms under the President has proposed drafting a law on agglomerations and establishing a project office to oversee the development of the Tashkent agglomeration. The interagency body would coordinate the development of the capital and Tashkent region as a single system.
The proposals are outlined in an analytical report titled “Modern Models of Agglomeration Development and Prospects for Their Adaptation in Uzbekistan”, the agency said.
The report examines global trends, China's experience and the current state of agglomerations in Uzbekistan. It also sets out nine groups of proposals aimed primarily at shifting towards a balanced, polycentric settlement model.
Why the issue has become urgent
Uzbekistan's population exceeds 38 million and grows by 700,000–800,000 people annually. The country accounts for around 45% of Central Asia's population. Population density in the Ferghana Valley reaches 700–800 people per square kilometre, comparable to that of the most densely populated provinces of China and India.
According to forecasts by the United Nations and the Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies, the urbanisation rate will exceed 54% by 2050, compared with the current 51%. This means another 7–9 million people could move to cities over the next two decades. The report's authors argue that the traditional model of isolated urban development cannot accommodate this influx and identify the creation of organised agglomerations as the only viable solution.
Three types of agglomerations
The report identifies three types of agglomerations. Tashkent is described as the country's only fully developed agglomeration of international significance. It includes the satellite cities of Gazalkent, Keles, Nurafshan, Chinaz, Chirchik and Yangiyul.
One distinctive feature is the semi-rural character of many suburban areas. According to the authors, the blending of rural and urban lifestyles helps ease social tensions but complicates infrastructure planning.
The second category comprises regional centres with populations approaching or exceeding one million. Samarkand is evolving from a compact tourist city into an agglomeration seeking to become the country's second economic hub. Namangan, experts estimate, will officially reach a population of one million in the medium term.
The third category consists of subregional hubs. These include the emerging Ferghana–Margilan agglomeration, as well as Bukhara, Andijan and Karshi. The authors believe Andijan could become the core of Central Asia's first cross-border agglomeration through its links with Osh in Kyrgyzstan.
Transport infrastructure struggling to keep pace
The report examines the main challenges using the Tashkent agglomeration as an example, drawing in part on a World Bank study conducted in April 2026. Around five million people live in Tashkent and the surrounding region. Over the next decade, the populations of satellite cities are expected to grow by 40–46%, while Tashkent's population is projected to increase by 14%. More than one million people travel daily between the suburbs and the capital.
Between 2020 and 2025, the number of private cars increased by 83% to 4.7 million. More than 415,000 vehicles were added in 2025 alone. Over the same period, the number of road accidents rose by 90%, while commercial bus speeds on some routes fell below 15 km/h.
More than 75% of Tashkent city residents have bus stops within walking distance. In districts of the surrounding region, however, the figure is below 30%. It stands at 32% in Chirchik and 44% in Nurafshan. Around 40% of passengers complain that buses do not run according to schedule.
The report cites Parkent district, home to more than 170,000 people. During the morning rush hour, bus route No. 221, connecting Parkent and Tashkent, can carry 500–600 passengers, while at least 10,000–15,000 people travel to the capital from the district every day.
According to the agency's calculations, the route meets less than 5% of actual demand. The remaining passengers rely on private cars operating as shared taxis, which cost three to four times more than buses and are not subject to safety oversight.
The problem is compounded by fragmented administration. Tashkent and the surrounding region operate under separate jurisdictions, with no unified fare system. Nearly half of suburban journeys require two or three transfers involving different payment methods. The capital has introduced gross-cost contracts with transport operators, while regional services operate on a self-financing basis, leaving up to 50% of operators' costs uncovered.
According to the World Bank, the number of private bus operators in Tashkent fell from seven in 2019 to one in 2024.
Environmental and urban planning challenges
Transport accounts for around 25% of PM2.5 emissions in Tashkent. During the winter of 2025–2026, pollution levels regularly exceeded World Health Organization limits by 10–15 times.
The report criticises the legacy of Soviet-era urban planning, which was designed for much lower levels of car ownership. On some sections of Parkent Street, the number of traffic lanes reaches 16, while the distance between pedestrian crossings can be as much as 800–1,000 metres. The extensive asphalt surfaces heat up by an average of 5–7 degrees more than the surrounding environment.
The authors also highlight poor construction practices. One example is a residential development along Kichik Beshagach Street in the Yakkasaray district, where buildings more than 10 storeys high, constructed two to three years ago, reportedly lack green spaces and underground parking. The report describes such planning mistakes as virtually irreversible.
Measures already under way
Construction regulations were tightened in 2026. A moratorium was introduced on adding floors and mansard levels to apartment buildings, while digital building passports and digital master plans are being introduced.
An automated monitoring system blocks the issuance of cadastral passports when construction deviates from approved designs. By 2030, Tashkent aims to increase green space to eight square metres per resident.
All combined heat and power plants in the capital and the surrounding region are required to be equipped with filtration systems with an efficiency rate of 95–99% by September 2026.
A colour-coded environmental classification system for vehicles is being introduced. For buildings higher than 12 metres, at least 30% of the adjacent area must be allocated to green spaces and public areas. The waste recycling rate in major agglomerations is expected to reach 65%, partly through the construction of six new waste-to-energy plants.
The New Tashkent project, covering around 20,000 hectares east of the capital, is being developed according to the 15-minute city concept. Plans include a 420-hectare central park, a 21-kilometre light rail line and a new metro branch.
Lessons from China
The report's authors point to China's experience as a model. The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei agglomeration, established in 2014, helped relocate functions unrelated to the national capital away from Beijing.
Beijing focused on administration, science and finance, Tianjin developed into a technology hub, and Hebei became a manufacturing base. By 2026, the region's gross regional product had doubled to around US$1.6 trillion, according to the report. The GDP of the Greater Bay Area, which brings together 11 cities, including Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Guangzhou, exceeded US$2.1 trillion.
Agency's proposals
In addition to the proposed law and project office, the agency recommends developing a comprehensive development strategy for the Tashkent agglomeration covering at least five years. It would coordinate the master plans of Tashkent, New Tashkent and the satellite cities.
Another proposal is to design a unified transport system featuring a common electronic ticket, transport interchange hubs and park-and-ride facilities. The agency also suggests gradually transforming Tashkent's Traffic Management Centre into a Mobility Management Centre for the entire agglomeration.
To narrow the budget gap between the capital and the surrounding region, the agency proposes establishing an interregional agglomeration fund. Part of Tashkent's tax revenues would be directed towards infrastructure development in suburban areas.
To ease pressure on the capital, the agency proposes relocating major polluting enterprises, warehouses and wholesale markets outside the city, including Abu Sahiy, Malika and Bek Baraka. It also recommends moving branches of several universities to the regions, introducing preferential agglomeration mortgages for people who buy homes and work in satellite cities, and offering tax incentives to companies that relocate production facilities outside the capital.
In the environmental sphere, the report proposes adopting China's sponge city model, which can retain up to 70% of precipitation in the soil, and creating a network of green corridors along the Anhor, Bozsu and Salar canals, drawing on the experience of Medellin in Colombia.
The agency also proposes establishing a commission involving the Prosecutor General's Office to conduct selective audits of Tashkent districts for compliance with urban planning regulations.
Separate master plans are proposed for the Ferghana Valley through 2035 and for the Samarkand agglomeration.
The China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway is expected to become operational in the Ferghana Valley in 2030. The report recommends developing Samarkand as an international tourism and education centre, while Urgut would become an industrial, commercial and handicrafts cluster.
