Uzbekistan Must Adopt a National Aviation Strategy to Sustain Sector Growth

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Central Asia is quietly emerging as one of the most consequential growth stories in global aviation. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are logging some of the strongest passenger and cargo growth rates in the world, geopolitical rerouting is generating structural new demand through the region, and IATA is expanding its institutional presence on the ground to match. But the opportunity, according to IATA's Regional Vice President for Europe Rafael Schvartzman, is real only if governments move from enthusiasm to strategy — and do so before the window narrows.

Schvartzman addressed the Central Asian aviation landscape at IATA's 82nd Annual General Meeting in Rio de Janeiro, drawing on recent visits to Tashkent and Astana and consultations with ministers of transport, civil aviation authorities, air traffic management bodies, and airport operators across the region.

Geopolitics as Structural Tailwind

The single most consequential external factor reshaping Central Asian aviation is the reconfiguration of global airspace. Restrictions following the 2022 Ukraine conflict closed large portions of Russian airspace to Western carriers, compressing viable east-west corridors and redirecting traffic flows through the region. The more recent Iran conflict has added further pressure, constraining Middle Eastern routing and reinforcing the strategic value of Central Asian overfly and transit options.

"We are seeing restricted airspace for flights from east to west and west to east," Schvartzman said. "That is also driving traffic in the region — which means it is an opportunity."

For doubly landlocked economies like Uzbekistan — one of only two countries in the world entirely surrounded by other landlocked states — reliable aviation connectivity is not a policy preference. It is an economic lifeline. Schvartzman was direct: "A doubly landlocked nation needs good connectivity, a good network to connect to the world. Cargo is clearly a government priority — and that is justified."

Cargo: The Clearest and Most Immediate Opportunity

Across both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, cargo growth has been exceptional in recent years, and IATA data shows the trend accelerating. The redirection of freight flows caused by airspace restrictions has created structural demand for Central Asian routing that did not exist before 2022. Longer detour routes around closed airspace increase the commercial logic of intermediate stops, and both countries are positioned to benefit.

Schvartzman highlighted two specific infrastructure opportunities. In Uzbekistan, the cargo terminal at Navoi — originally developed with South Korean partners and designed explicitly as a cargo hub — has significant untapped potential that warrants renewed strategic attention. In Kazakhstan, Karaganda airport was identified as a particularly promising cargo development site, in part because of its superior access to JET A-1 aviation fuel compared to other locations in the region.

"Cargo is an obvious priority, and healthy competition between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in this space will drive efficiencies and better service," Schvartzman said. "You don't want to make the same mistakes Europe made by ignoring efficiency costs. You are still in the development stage — that is actually an advantage if you use it wisely."

Uzbekistan: Tourism Anchor and Passenger Growth Engine

Among the countries of Central Asia, Uzbekistan holds a distinctive and underexploited advantage in tourism. Schvartzman singled out the country's cultural heritage assets — Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva — as genuinely world-class attractions capable of generating substantial international passenger demand if connected to adequate air services.

"Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva — these are fantastic destinations," he said. "Uzbekistan has a significant advantage over its neighbors in cultural tourism, and that needs to be monetized through route development."

He acknowledged that other countries in the region — Kyrgyzstan's mountain landscapes, Kazakhstan's natural areas — also carry tourism potential, but noted that access infrastructure remains underdeveloped and difficult. Uzbekistan, by contrast, has a ready narrative and an existing base of international interest that can be converted into air traffic with the right network development and airport investment.

Uzbekistan's population of nearly 40 million also creates a domestic connectivity opportunity that few regional markets can match. The government's stated objective of developing domestic air links is well-founded, Schvartzman said, but requires discipline: high volume, high efficiency, and low fares do not emerge from distributing air operator certificates liberally. They come from a competitive market built on sound infrastructure and clear strategic planning.

The Safety Imperative: Protecting a Hard-Won Advantage

Uzbekistan enters this growth phase with a significant competitive asset that must not be taken for granted: its aviation safety record meets European Union standards, keeping it off the EU safety blacklist that has constrained other regional carriers.

Kazakhstan's experience is instructive. The country spent an estimated 10 to 15 years working to exit the EU aviation safety blacklist — a long and commercially costly process that constrained the growth of its domestic carriers throughout. Uzbekistan has avoided that fate, and Schvartzman was emphatic that maintaining this standing must be an active, deliberate policy commitment as the market rapidly opens up.

The concern is practical and immediate. Market participants at the briefing reported chronic flight delays of 15 to 20 hours among some newer Uzbek carriers, alongside repeated cases of airlines losing their leased aircraft within months of beginning operations, and carriers ceasing operations entirely within their first year. The pattern is recognizable: operator certificates issued without sufficient regulatory scrutiny, business models that cannot survive contact with real market conditions, and safety management systems that exist on paper but not in practice.

Schvartzman's recommended remedy is a mandatory IOSA requirement — making the IATA Operational Safety Audit a condition of receiving permission to operate flights in Uzbekistan. "What you are describing is an uncertain market. If you don't have a very strict safety management system — such as IOSA — that is one tool that will help the authorities bring order," he said. "It will guarantee that safety levels are there."

The logic is not merely regulatory. Airlines that pass IOSA certification demonstrate the operational discipline that attracts international codeshare partners, enables slot access at foreign airports, and builds the passenger confidence that sustains long-term growth. For a market trying to develop international connectivity, IOSA is a commercial signal as much as a safety standard.

The Strategic Planning Gap: Aviation Strategy and Airport Master Plans

Perhaps the most consistent theme running through Schvartzman's assessment of Central Asia is the absence of coordinated strategic planning — and the risks that absence creates as growth accelerates.

Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are making or considering significant airport investments. Kazakhstan is examining expansion at Astana, including a possible second runway, as well as dedicated cargo infrastructure development. Uzbekistan has a second Tashkent airport in development, alongside existing facilities in Samarkand, Bukhara, and other cities with tourism potential.

But individual airport decisions, made without reference to a network-wide strategy, risk producing fragmented infrastructure that serves no market efficiently. Schvartzman was direct: Uzbekistan cannot afford to develop all of its airports simultaneously, and attempting to do so would spread capital and management attention too thin to deliver quality at any of them.

"You need to understand which airports you are going to develop and how," he said. "For a country with cities like Samarkand, Bukhara, and Khiva, domestic connectivity has enormous potential — but you cannot develop all airports at once. You need a national aviation strategy and a master plan, not just for one airport, but for the whole network."

He cited the example of a low-cost carrier launched in Uzbekistan with a web-based model designed for a high-connectivity market — a model that failed rapidly because the digital and transport infrastructure needed to support it did not yet exist. The lesson is not that ambition is wrong, but that ambition must be grounded in an honest assessment of where a market actually is, not where its planners wish it to be.

Schvartzman also flagged regulatory framework improvements needed in areas directly affecting airline operating costs: fuel supply at airports, ground handling standards, and the broader cost of doing business for carriers — areas where inefficiencies act as a hidden tax on the market's competitiveness.

The Hub Question: Connectivity Over Imitation

Every country in Central Asia wants to be an aviation hub. Schvartzman's counsel was consistent and measured: not all of them will be, and pursuing hub status as an end in itself is a strategic distraction from the more achievable and more valuable goal of building genuine connectivity.

The competitive reality is hard. Turkish Airlines holds dominant positioning on Europe–Central Asia routes. Replicating the model of Dubai or Istanbul requires hub infrastructure, airline scale, and geographic positioning that cannot be manufactured through policy alone. What can be built — and what creates durable economic value — is a strong domestic route network that generates the feed traffic to support meaningful international connections.

"Focus on connectivity, not on copying the Dubai or Istanbul model," Schvartzman said. "Not everyone will be a hub. What you need to maintain is connectivity. A hub cannot be replicated easily — there are certain hubs with very heavy competitive advantages. But a strong domestic market is yours to build, and that can create real international connectivity over time."

IATA's Expanding Regional Presence

IATA's institutional commitment to the region has grown to match its assessment of the opportunity. In April 2026, IATA opened a representative office in Tashkent, adding to its existing office in Astana that covers Kazakhstan. Azerbaijan continues to be managed from the organization's Istanbul base.

Schvartzman visited Tashkent in April 2026 for consultations with the Ministry of Transport, civil aviation authorities, air traffic management, and airport operators. The range of engagement reflects the breadth of IATA's work in the market: not simply membership services, but active partnership on regulatory modernization, safety standards, commercial infrastructure, and strategic planning.

Also in April 2026, IATA announced the launch of the BSP — Billing and Settlement Plan — in Uzbekistan, the standardized financial settlement system that underpins transparent, competitive airline ticket distribution. Currently, 14 Uzbek agencies hold IATA accreditation — 12 in passenger ticketing and two in cargo. The existing 12 passenger agents are large consolidators, and Schvartzman expects their sub-agents to seek direct accreditation in significant numbers once the BSP is operational. He projected the accredited agent total to grow to triple the current number or more.

"We opened the office because we found the government and the airlines are supportive," Schvartzman said. "We would not have done it otherwise."

Kazakhstan is already a developed BSP market, operating the system for many years. Azerbaijan is similarly established. Uzbekistan's entry into the BSP framework marks a maturation of its commercial aviation infrastructure — one that should, over time, drive more competitive pricing, broader ticket accessibility, and deeper integration of Uzbek carriers into the global distribution system.

The 82nd IATA AGM continues in Rio de Janeiro through 8 June 2026.