Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has kept its key interest rate unchanged at 14% per annum. The regulator’s board made the decision at a meeting on 4 November 2026, citing strong domestic demand and persistent risks of accelerating inflation.
According to the Central Bank, annual inflation stood at 6.4% in September, edging up slightly from August. Price increases for fruit and vegetables, fuel and certain services contributed to the rise. Inflation in the services sector reached 7%, while core inflation remained at 5.5%.
Inflation expectations among households and businesses continued to decline. In September, households expected inflation of 8.7% over the next 12 months, while business representatives projected 9.2%.
At the same time, the regulator noted that supply-side factors were having a stronger impact and external risks remained. In particular, volatility in global food prices and uncertainty over energy costs could put pressure on domestic prices through imports, production costs and transport expenses.
Economic activity in Uzbekistan remains strong. GDP grew by 8.3% in January–September 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. Industry, construction and services were the main drivers of growth.
The Central Bank expects investment activity and rising real household incomes to continue supporting domestic demand. In light of current trends, its forecast for GDP growth in 2026 has been revised upwards to around 8%.
However, the regulator warned that aggregate demand exceeding the economy’s production capacity could sustain inflationary pressure.
Under the updated forecast, annual inflation in Uzbekistan is expected to reach around 7% by the end of 2026. It is projected to decline to the 5% target by the end of 2027. The Central Bank expects the direct impact of regulated price adjustments to fade next year, while tight monetary conditions will limit the secondary effects of those increases.
The regulator also noted that money market interest rates were holding close to the key rate, while real interest rates on deposits and loans in the national currency remained positive. This supports the attractiveness of savings in soums and helps contain domestic demand.
Keeping the key rate at 14% is intended to maintain tight monetary conditions and curb inflationary pressure.
