Global air traffic falls for first time since pandemic recovery: IATA

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The global aviation market has recorded its first decline in passenger traffic since the post-pandemic recovery period, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

In April 2026, the industry’s revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) fell by 3.4% year-on-year. The data was published in IATA’s monthly report released on May 28.

Total RPK volume in April stood at 748 billion. The passenger load factor (PLF) decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 83.1%, marking the first annual decline in PLF in 2026. Industry-wide capacity fell by 2.9%.

The Middle East drives global downturn

The main driver of the global decline was a sharp collapse in Middle Eastern airline traffic, which dropped by 46.6% year-on-year. The downturn was attributed to ongoing consequences of regional military conflict, including airspace closures, operational disruptions, and rising fuel costs. Capacity among Middle Eastern carriers fell by 37.2%, while PLF dropped by 12.5 percentage points to 70.6%.

Although March had seen a sharper 59.2% decline, April’s figures reflect only partial recovery following a ceasefire between the United States and Iran and partial reopening of regional airspace.

North American carriers also posted negative results, with traffic down 0.3% due to weaker domestic demand.

Domestic and international markets

Domestic traffic was nearly flat in April, rising by only 0.04% compared with 6.6% growth in March. Negative performance was recorded in the United States (–0.6%), India (–2.9%), and Australia (–0.4%). Moderate growth continued in Japan (+3.7%), Brazil (+2.6%), and China (+1.2%).

International RPK fell by 5.3%, compared with a 0.6% decline in March. International traffic for Middle Eastern airlines dropped by 48.1%.

Growth leaders

Despite the overall downturn, several regions maintained positive momentum. Airlines in Latin America and the Caribbean recorded the strongest growth at 5.0%, with a record April PLF of 82.9%. African carriers increased traffic by 2.8%, Asia-Pacific by 1.7%, and Europe by 0.8%.

On Europe–Asia routes, traffic increased by 15.3%, although this slowed from 29.2% in March. The growth was largely driven by a shift in passenger flows away from Middle Eastern hubs toward direct flights.

Outlook

IATA estimates that global capacity will decline by a further 1.1% in May. Routes involving the Middle East are expected to see a 26.6% decline.

A return to modest global capacity growth of 0.2% is forecast only in June, subject to stabilization in the region. The organization warns that further schedule adjustments remain likely.