Central Asia Aviation Targets Hub Status Amid Skills and Market Gaps

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Central Asia's aviation sector is at a critical inflection point, as passenger traffic, cargo operations, tourism and digital transformation converge to create a multi-layered economic opportunity, participants told the Tashkent International Investment Forum.

Key indicators confirm the scale of change. The region handled 60 million passengers in 2025 and is the fastest-growing aviation sub-region in the world, with passenger growth running at 2.5 times the rate of GDP expansion. Over the past eight years, the number of airlines serving Uzbekistan has risen from 15 to 44, with foreign carriers increasing from 14 to 36.

Tourism as a unifying force

Central Asia's tourism potential remains largely untapped, creating a rare opportunity for coordinated development. Manuel Ambriz, a senior adviser at Abrial, said the region faces a distinctive moment as traditional global destinations become overcrowded.

"Every year we read news about cities facing problems. Paris, Venice, Barcelona, Madrid — more and more cities are becoming oversaturated. Local residents object, and it makes for a poor experience for travellers, especially sophisticated tourists. For Uzbekistan and Tashkent there is an excellent opportunity to create new destinations and new experiences that are different and fresh," Ambriz said.

Uzbekistan and neighbouring countries each attracted 11 million tourists last year, compared with around 30 million for the United Arab Emirates. The tourism sector's growth potential is estimated at three times current levels if multi-country itineraries are developed.

The fundamental obstacle is that the region does not function as a unified tourism space. Intra-regional air connections are minimal. Ambriz described this as a "cooperation problem" requiring coordination among tourism authorities, airlines, hotels, travel agencies and cultural heritage organisations.

"We need cooperation at every level — from government bodies to the private sector. It is not just airports and airlines. It is tourism development agencies, travel agencies, hotels and the organisations that create a complete offer for the traveller," he said.

Ambriz recommended targeting markets with large populations, high incomes and experienced travellers, citing South Korea, France and Germany as priority source countries. Investment in awareness of Central Asian destinations should be accompanied by improvements in the airport experience, which he said forms an integral part of the tourism product.

Air cargo as an undervalued segment

Air cargo represents an economically significant segment that is frequently underestimated. Mario Antonio Ebsim, a commercial aircraft sales specialist at Boeing, cited a striking statistic: although only 1% of global goods by volume travel by air, that share represents 35% of total value.

Uzbekistan is already recording substantial growth in this segment. Air cargo volumes have doubled compared with pre-pandemic levels. State investment in infrastructure reflects the segment's importance: Uzbekistan Airports invested in a modern cargo terminal two years ago, and the country's new airport will also be equipped with advanced cargo facilities.

E-commerce is the primary driver of cargo growth. Ebsim noted that local start-ups and companies are actively investing in the sector. Uzum, a major regional e-commerce platform, is already engaged in cargo operations. MyFreighter, a cargo airline, and Uzbekistan Airways Cargo are expanding their freight fleets in partnership.

"Aviation is resilient on both the passenger and cargo sides. Despite fluctuations, the trend is upward. Tashkent and Uzbekistan will be a key territory for connecting both passengers and air cargo, which is essential. E-commerce will undoubtedly drive demand for air freight," Ebsim said.Cargo infrastructure development carries regional significance. Uzbekistan has the potential to become a logistics hub for delivering goods to European markets through east-west corridors.

Tashkent as a regional aviation hub

The strategy for developing Tashkent into a regional hub rests on geographic advantage and untapped potential. Transit traffic at Tashkent airport currently stands at less than 3%, compared with 40–70% at Istanbul and Dubai.

Javlonbek Umarkhodjaev, chairman of Uzbekistan Airports, said hub development is impossible without a strong national carrier. "A foreign airline will never build a hub on someone else's territory. That is why we work with Uzbekistan Airways. We have one strategy and one vision," he said.

Alisher Sattarov, first deputy chairman of the board of Uzbekistan Airways, set out the conditions required for a successful hub. Geographic position is necessary but not sufficient. Good connectivity, frequent flights and an adequate number of destinations are required to attract transfer passengers.

"But that is also not enough. All Uzbekistan stakeholders — airports, airlines, the regulatory framework — must come together. We have everything we need to succeed. We simply need to work together," he said.

Successful hubs such as Dubai possess characteristics that extend beyond geography. Sattarov pointed to the need to replicate the same level of service quality and operational organisation that makes Tashkent an attractive transfer point.

The competitive landscape complicates the task. Kazakhstan and other regional countries are actively developing their airports. Kazbek Bassiev, senior vice-president of Vision Invest, noted that competition for hub status will be intense. "The hub race is opening. Kazakhstan is building, Kyrgyzstan is building. The right approach to this dynamic is essential," he said.

A critical workforce shortage

Human capital will be one of the primary constraints on aviation sector development. Umarkhodjaev identified skilled personnel as the most critical shortage facing the industry over the next five years.

The problem is compounded by the number of new airport projects under way. Uzbekistan Airports, with government support, is implementing several public-private partnership projects at Ferghana and Namangan airports. The first phase of a competition for a new airport in Bukhara has just been completed, with Incheon International Airport Corporation as partner.

To address this challenge, Uzbekistan Airports has developed a comprehensive human resources programme. The company has established close cooperation with Incheon International Airport for staff training using their academy. The new Tashkent airport will have its own training academy.

"We are not only training personnel for Tashkent airport — we can export these services to other countries. This creates a business opportunity in human resource management," Umarkhodjaev said.

Both Uzbekistan Airways and Uzbekistan Airports have training and development programmes to close the skills gap, though the scale of investment in education and workforce preparation may prove a determining factor for the overall strategy.

Digitalisation and artificial intelligence

The adoption of AI and digital technologies is becoming increasingly critical to the competitiveness of airlines and airports. Data presented at the session showed that 65% of travellers already plan trips using AI assistants such as ChatGPT and Claude, a share expected to grow.

Sattarov confirmed that Uzbekistan Airways is working to deploy AI across several key areas. The first is pricing, where algorithms can optimise fares in real time based on demand. The second and more critical area is predictive aircraft diagnostics.

"Anticipating a problem is often more important than solving it in aviation. If an aircraft is on the ground for several days, that means lost revenue. That is why we are deploying AI to predict maintenance issues," he said.

Ambriz highlighted the critical importance of visibility in AI systems for the tourism sector. When travellers use AI assistants to plan trips, it is essential that Central Asia appears in algorithmic responses.

"Companies now need to learn how to capture the attention of AI agents. This is evolving very quickly, but best practices are evolving too. Visibility is very important, and it is achieved through consistency in using language that AI agents understand. The second element is collaborative effort. If the websites of airlines, travel agencies, hotels and museums are AI-ready, it creates a self-reinforcing ecosystem," he said.

Investors place high value on AI investment. Omar Turk of BlackRock noted that AI-related improvements form part of the investment thesis when evaluating airports and airlines. BlackRock applies AI to security optimisation — including X-ray analysis at airports — baggage handling automation and runway traffic optimisation.

Marius Dan of Templeton Global Investments pointed to the material impact on financial performance. Proper AI implementation at airlines can increase a company's net margin by three to five percentage points, a significant improvement in a thin-margin industry.

Aviation market liberalisation

Hub development requires opening the air transport market, creating tension between protecting the national carrier and attracting foreign airlines. Sang Yong Lee, president and chief executive of Incheon International Airport Corporation, identified aviation market liberalisation as one of the most critical regulatory challenges.

Uzbekistan has implemented an open-skies policy at regional airports, but Tashkent remains an exception in order to protect the national carrier and manage airport capacity.

"The exception protects the national carrier from direct competition but simultaneously limits the development of aviation tourism through participation by other airlines. Investors need a binding commitment that the government will implement phased liberalisation of the Tashkent aviation market," Lee said.

He recommended developing a structured roadmap specifying timelines and conditions for a gradual market opening, legally codified to provide predictability for investors.

PPP financing: a model for success

Public-private partnerships are becoming the primary financing mechanism for airport projects. Omar Turk of BlackRock GIP, which manages a US$30 billion fund for Central Asia, identified the key criteria for a successful partnership.

"At a high level, the key point is that the public and private sectors must be solving the same problem. The PPP must support the national agenda, not operate separately from it," Turk said.

He outlined three critical elements. First, clear alignment of incentives and appropriate risk allocation between the state and the private sector: if the government is pursuing growth but the commercial structure provides only cost recovery, the incentives are not aligned. Second, the private investor must have sufficient control over the entire infrastructure to deliver on the agenda — in the case of airports, that means the full spectrum from parking and terminals to security, retail and the runway. Third, the private operator must bring more than capital — it must bring genuine operational capabilities and knowledge of how to improve occupancy, throughput and customer service quality.

BlackRock illustrated these principles with the example of London Gatwick, where the company invested in 2009. During its period of ownership, aircraft movement intensity rose from 50 to 57 operations per hour, security lane throughput increased from 160 to more than 500 passengers per hour and total passenger numbers grew from 33 million to 43 million, while holding cost per passenger flat in real terms.

The Incheon model

Lee presented Incheon International Airport as a model for hub development with government support. In 1990, when airport planning began, South Korea had a population of 43 million and a GDP per capita of US$6,000. Inbound tourism stood at only 2.5 million visitors.

The government invested in a new airport before demand had been fully proven. That decision was supported by several factors: the economy was growing on the back of a favourable currency, low oil prices and low interest rates. Gimpo Airport, the existing facility, was approaching its capacity of 12 million passengers. The key catalysts included the liberalisation of outbound tourism rules in 1989 and major events such as the 1986 Asian Games and the 1988 Seoul Olympics. The government anticipated that as GDP per capita rose toward US$10,000 and beyond, demand for air travel would grow exponentially.

At the time, Korean Air ranked only 19th in the IATA global airline ranking. The combination of sound government policy and strong vision transformed Incheon into the leading aviation hub of the Asia-Pacific region.

The parallels with Uzbekistan are striking. In 2025, Uzbekistan has a population of 38 million and a GDP per capita of approximately US$4,000. Tashkent airport handled 10 million passengers last year, approaching capacity. The conditions for rapid growth are comparable.

"This is the ideal time to develop Tashkent as the new hub of Central Asia. But it is necessary to think about how to build a competitive national carrier. Without airlines that dominate and grow, we cannot achieve the cooperation we need either," Lee said.

Fleet expansion and strategic alignment

Uzbekistan Airways plans to double its fleet by the end of the decade. Ebsim noted that while aircraft deliveries take time, alternative sources such as leasing channels exist.

"The right strategy — one that accounts for all stakeholders, not just the airline but also airports, cargo demand, policy, talent — is very important. You can have an aircraft tomorrow, but you need pilots, technicians, cabin crew, sales staff, service personnel and the entire ecosystem. Without that, the aircraft is useless," he said.

Fleet expansion must include the right mix of aircraft types: widebody and narrowbody jets, freighters and large widebody aircraft for the anticipated opening of the new airport in 2030.

Sattarov stressed that aligning all ecosystem stakeholders may be more critical than any individual infrastructure component.

"Airports can be built, aircraft can be obtained — though it is difficult. But the primary challenge is alignment among all stakeholders. The ecosystem must be aligned in a way that helps all participants in the aviation sector grow," he said.

Lee recommended that Uzbekistan legally codify a reform roadmap for the aviation sector. "This ambitious vision of Uzbekistan as the new hub of the New Silk Road is very difficult to achieve in a competitive environment. That is why I strongly recommend codifying the roadmap. Every stakeholder will understand what to do, how to do it and when to do it," he said.