Uzbekistan Targets Investment-Grade Rating by 2030, Forum Told

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Uzbekistan is targeting an investment-grade credit rating by 2030, a goal set by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, an adviser to the Ministry of Economy and Finance told the Tashkent International Investment Forum on 16 June.

Jasur Karshibaev said the target rating is BBB or BB-. A dedicated working group has been formed under the head of the presidential administration to coordinate reforms aimed at improving the country's sovereign rating.

The rating target is linked to a broader strategic objective: growing GDP to US$240 billion by 2030 and advancing to upper-middle-income status. The government is implementing a wide range of economic and institutional reforms aimed at creating a favourable business environment and improving accountability and transparency, Karshibaev said.

Early results are visible. GDP growth reached 8.7% in the first quarter, while inflation has fallen to approximately 5.5%, partly on the basis of a low comparison period from the previous year.

Karshibaev stressed that long-term growth sustainability must be driven by the private sector and private capital rather than by budget spending. "We cannot base our success on fiscal intervention. This must be private-sector-led growth," he said.

He acknowledged, however, that at current levels of domestic savings, the country cannot finance such rapid economic growth on its own. "Given current savings levels, we believe we cannot fuel our economy, which is growing at such a fast pace, without external capital," he said. In that context, he said, the role of multilateral guarantees, blended finance instruments and export credit agencies becomes increasingly important.

Their use is only justified, in his view, when the cost of those instruments remains competitive with commercial financing. When risk premiums are too high and commercial financing is already trading at investment-grade levels, it becomes very difficult to compete.

The perception gap

Karshibaev raised a fundamental issue for Uzbekistan: the gap between the country's actual economic performance and the way it is perceived by international investors and rating agencies. The government has conducted an internal assessment of Uzbekistan's position using the methodologies of the three leading agencies — S&P, Fitch and Moody's — across five analytical blocks: economic, monetary, fiscal, external and institutional.

The findings were instructive. Across four of the five blocks, the country's fundamentals already meet investment-grade thresholds. The only lagging area is the institutional block, whose assessment is largely driven by perception rather than objective data.

This factor, Karshibaev said, is artificially inflating the cost of financing for Uzbekistan. He drew an analogy with inflation: actual consumer price index levels may be around 5.5%, while expectations remain at 10%.

In a situation where the country's sovereign spreads have already moved close to investment-grade levels while risk indicators continue to lag, the appeal of certain financing instruments becomes limited. Karshibaev also responded pointedly to comments made by other panellists who repeatedly described Uzbekistan as one of the most attractive markets in terms of risk-adjusted returns. "If everyone here is saying we have a good risk-to-return ratio, that perhaps means we are overpaying," he said.

He identified the key objective: ensuring that the perception of country risk matches its actual level. "As a country we need to create a sound framework, address all the concerns of potential investors and make sure we are not overpaying and that the cost of financing remains affordable," he said. To that end, Uzbekistan is working actively with the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank and other development partners to keep rating agencies informed of ongoing changes in the country.

Karshibaev also addressed the OECD country risk classification, which directly affects the cost of financing through export credit agencies. Ensuring that Uzbekistan's actual risks are correctly reflected in that classification would reduce the premium and thereby expand the volume of transactions in the country. "We are ready to cooperate, because if we achieve correct reflection of Uzbekistan's risks in the country risk classification, it will also facilitate broader transactions in Uzbekistan, as the premium will be lower," he said.

Rating trajectory

Uzbekistan's sovereign rating has shown consistent positive momentum. In June 2025, S&P upgraded its rating from BB- to BB+, assigning a positive outlook. In early June 2026, Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on Uzbekistan's long-term rating from stable to positive, affirming it at BB. The country is steadily closing the gap to investment grade, a threshold that would open access to a broader pool of international investors and reduce the cost of external borrowing.