Uzbekistan Targets 5% Inflation by 2027, Central Bank Says

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Uzbekistan's inflation rate hit its lowest point since 2017 in May, and the Central Bank says it sees no significant obstacles to reaching its 5% target by the end of 2027 — a goal that has slipped repeatedly in recent years.

Central Bank Governor Timur Ishmetov delivered the assessment on June 13 at a plenary session of the Senate of the Oliy Majlis, where the regulator presented its 2025 annual performance report. Responding to a question from Senator Ikromkhon Najmiddinov, Ishmetov acknowledged the target's troubled history before making the case for cautious optimism.

Annual inflation decelerated to 5.5% in May — a nine-year low — while monthly price growth slowed to just 0.2%, reflecting a broad cooling of price pressures across the economy. With the target set at 5% for year-end 2027, the gap has narrowed considerably.

Ishmetov was candid about the forces shaping inflation on both sides. On the upside pressure: aggregate demand continues to outpace the economy's productive capacity, budget expenditures have repeatedly exceeded planned parameters, and a multi-year phased liberalization of energy tariffs — launched in 2024 — continues to feed through into prices. External risks compound the picture, including geopolitical tensions and rising global commodity and food prices.

On the downside, the governor emphasized that all of these factors are already embedded in the regulator's current forecasts, and that projections remain subject to revision should domestic or external conditions shift materially.

Price dynamics, Ishmetov noted, are shaped by a combination of monetary and non-monetary factors — both domestic and external — a framing that leaves the Central Bank room to maneuver without fully committing to a single trajectory.

For a country that has spent years chasing an elusive inflation target, May's 5.5% reading offers the clearest signal yet that Tashkent's monetary tightening cycle may finally be delivering results.