Uzbek Household Debt Burden Falls Amid Multi-Loan Risk

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The debt burden of the population in Uzbekistan decreased in 2025 following the tightening of macroprudential requirements, but risks continue to accumulate within the debt structure as the number of borrowers holding multiple simultaneous loans rises and microloan quality deteriorates. This trend was detailed by the Central Bank in its financial stability review for 2025.

The average debt service-to-income ratio for individuals who received a bank credit—factoring in all their obligations to banks and non-banking organizations—declined from 38% in 2024 to 37%. The share of loans issued to borrowers with a debt service-to-income ratio of no higher than 50% grew from 58% to 74% of the total volume of disbursements.

The burden fell most sharply in collateralized segments. The average debt service-to-income ratio for mortgage borrowers stood at 49%, contracting by 22 percentage points over the year, while for auto loans it dropped from 60% to 37%. The regulator links this to direct limits in effect since 24 July 2025, which stipulate that the loan-to-value ratio for mortgages cannot exceed 85%. The average loan-to-value ratio for issued mortgages was 76%, and for auto loans it was 73%.

Microloans moved in the opposite direction, with the average debt service-to-income ratio in this segment rising from 37% to 40%. The lack of target-use and collateral requirements accelerates the expansion of the borrower base and generates a higher debt burden, the Central Bank noted.

The primary structural shift of the year was the increase in the number of individuals servicing multiple debts simultaneously. Among those who received a bank credit in 2025, this group accounted for 53%, compared to 43% a year earlier. The necessity of paying on multiple loans simultaneously weakens borrower solvency, the regulator warned.

The geography of borrowing is also shifting. The share of citizens holding obligations only to banks contracted over the year from 81% to 62% of the total number of borrowers. Meanwhile, the share of non-banking organization clients grew from 11% to 20%, and the share of those with debts to both rose from 8% to 18%. In terms of total outstanding debt, banks maintain dominance, accounting for 94% of all household debt.

Borrower self-assessments appear more alarming than official statistics. According to a Central Bank survey conducted between 20 January 2026 and 27 January 2026 among 5,800 respondents across all regions of the country, 61% of participants with debts reported difficulties with timely repayment. The average debt burden of the surveyed bank borrowers stood at 51% of their income, and for 47% of them, it exceeds half of their earnings. Furthermore, 8% of respondents admitted that they took out a new loan to repay an existing one. Expectations remain moderately optimistic, with 47% anticipating an improvement in their solvency over the next six months, while 42% expect no changes.

The retail credit portfolio of banks continues to grow rapidly, reaching 220.3 trillion soums as of 1 January 2026, which accounts for 36% of the total portfolio. The outstanding balance of microloans grew by 46% over the year, microcredits by 51%, and mortgages by 17%. The ratio of retail loans to GDP remains moderate at 12%, which is 0.8 percentage points below the long-term trend.

Borrowers are supported by rising incomes, as nominal GDP per capita increased by US$614 in 2025 to reach US$3,879. The Central Bank evaluated the year-end results as an improvement in the condition of the household sector, but it classifies the credit risk of microloans as a primary domestic risk to financial stability in the near term.