Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — International rating agency Fitch Ratings has assigned Andijan Region long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer default ratings of ‘BB-’ with a Stable Outlook. The agency announced the ratings on 9 November 2026.
The region’s ratings are in line with its standalone credit profile (SCP), which was also assessed at ‘bb-’. Fitch expects Andijan Region’s debt service coverage ratio to remain below nine times under its baseline scenario through 2030.
The agency described the region’s risk profile as weak and assessed its financial profile at the lower end of the ‘aa’ category. Factors affecting the risk assessment include the dependence of revenue on decisions by the central authorities, limited ability to increase revenue and reduce spending independently, and the specific features of debt and liquidity management.
In 2025, taxes accounted for 49% of Andijan Region’s operating revenue, while transfers made up a further 43%. By comparison, taxes accounted for 37% and transfers for 56% in 2021.
Fitch noted that the region has limited scope to increase revenue independently, as tax rates and the allocation of tax receipts between budget levels are determined by the central government. Meanwhile, more than 90% of expenditure in 2021–2025 was classified as inflexible. In 2025, salaries accounted for around 46% of operating expenditure.
The region’s cash balance stood at 205bn soums at the end of 2025. A significant portion of this amount had been earmarked for specific expenditures.
Access to debt capital markets is restricted by national legislation. However, the region can use the central government’s short-term budget loan facility to cover temporary cash-flow shortfalls.
Under its rating scenario, Fitch forecasts that the debt service coverage ratio will peak at 8.2 times by 2030.
The average coverage of actual debt service in 2026–2030 is expected to stand at 2.4 times, while the budget debt burden will remain below 50%.
Among the region’s key economic characteristics, the agency cited a population of 3.5 million, or around 9% of Uzbekistan’s total population. Gross regional product per capita is approximately 60% of the national level. The region’s economy combines intensive agriculture with automotive manufacturing.
Fitch named Ferghana and Jizzakh regions, as well as Tashkent, as comparable regions. They have been assigned the same ‘BB-’ ratings with a Stable Outlook.
