Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — International rating agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed Uzbek operator Uzbektelecom’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BB’ with a Positive Outlook, while upgrading its standalone credit profile (SCP) from ‘bb-’ to ‘bb’. The agency said this in a statement dated 9 November 2026.
Fitch attributed the upgrade to expectations of improved free cash flow and a gradual reduction in the company’s debt burden over the next two years.
Analysts said this would be supported by Uzbektelecom’s strong position in the domestic market, an expanding subscriber base and moderate debt levels.
The company’s Long-Term IDR is aligned with Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating of ‘BB’. Fitch considers government support to be “extremely likely”. The Positive Outlook on Uzbektelecom’s rating is consistent with the outlook on the country’s sovereign rating.
According to Fitch, the state owns 94% of Uzbektelecom’s shares. The government determines the company’s key strategic priorities, investments and main functions in information security. The state also guarantees around 43% of the company’s external debt. The agency expects this share to exceed 50% by the end of 2027.
Uzbektelecom holds a leading position in the country’s telecommunications market. According to Fitch estimates as of the end of September 2026, the company accounted for around 32% of the mobile communications market and 85% of the fixed broadband internet market.
However, substantial infrastructure investment continues to constrain free cash flow. Fitch forecasts that capital expenditure will reach 49% of revenue in 2026 before beginning to decline to around 27% in 2028. Under the agency’s baseline scenario, the figure is expected to fall to approximately 20% by 2029.
According to Fitch’s forecast, net debt to EBITDA will rise from 2.3 times in 2025 to 2.8 times in 2026, before gradually declining to 2.6 times by 2028. The agency believes that keeping this ratio below 3 times over the forecast period supports the standalone credit profile assessment of ‘bb’.
Fitch also highlighted foreign exchange risk: around 90% of Uzbektelecom’s debt is denominated in foreign currency, while most of its revenue is generated in soums. The company does not use foreign exchange hedging instruments.
Uzbektelecom is preparing for a possible international initial public offering (IPO) as part of the privatisation programme.
Fitch said a potential listing would not, in itself, affect the rating, as the agency expects the state to retain a controlling stake in the company.
