Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has held an expert seminar titled “Pathways to Decarbonising Uzbekistan: Challenges and Opportunities” to discuss long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction scenarios and financing the transition to a low-carbon economy.
The event brought together representatives of the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the French Development Agency (AFD), the Institute for Climate Economics (I4CE), the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), experts from the Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDP) initiative and representatives of Adelante.
A CERR expert team led by Abdurashid Bozorov presented findings from a study of long-term decarbonisation scenarios for Uzbekistan’s economy. The research was conducted with AFD support and methodological assistance from IDDRI and the DDP network.
The analysis uses the Pathways Designer model to assess how different development scenarios for energy, industry, transport, construction and other sectors could affect greenhouse gas emissions through 2050 and beyond.
Work on the model began in 2025 with support from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) under the SIPA project. In 2026, with AFD assistance, the study was expanded to include, for the first time, agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in the comprehensive assessment.
The study draws on Uzbekistan’s national statistics and strategic documents. This makes it possible to compare emission reduction scenarios with the country’s socioeconomic development priorities and assess the potential impact of policy decisions on individual sectors.
The research comes as Uzbekistan updates its climate commitments. Under its revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), the country aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP by 50% by 2035 compared with 2010 levels.
According to NDC 3.0, financing needs for emission reduction measures are estimated at US$33.7 billion through 2030 and nearly US$70 billion through 2035. The funding gap through 2030 stands at US$9.5 billion.
Financing the low-carbon transition
I4CE experts Louise Kessler and Solène Métayer outlined key approaches to financing long-term climate strategies and presented the LTS Dashboard, an analytical tool for assessing investment needs and planning funding for low-carbon development strategies.
Participants discussed how the tool could be adapted to Uzbekistan’s circumstances, taking into account national climate targets, existing planning mechanisms and data availability.
Particular attention was paid to public and private financing, green bonds, public-private partnership mechanisms and international climate funds.
International approaches to decarbonisation
Sara Dia, an expert at Adelante, presented an assessment of the implementation of Uzbekistan’s Strategic Framework for Green Growth.
Georgiy Safonov, an expert at DEXA, IDDRI and the DDP initiative, discussed a comprehensive assessment of modelling greenhouse gas emission reductions across Uzbekistan’s economy. The discussion focused on links between sectoral decarbonisation scenarios, economic development and the achievement of long-term climate goals.
Expert discussion
Participants examined Uzbekistan’s socioeconomic development prospects through 2050 and beyond, the adoption of low-carbon technologies, sustainable financing, the investment climate and international cooperation.
The discussions aimed to refine long-term decarbonisation scenarios, identify investment needs and improve mechanisms for monitoring climate policy.
