Global economy remains resilient amid conflict shock

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The global economy has remained broadly resilient more than three months after the outbreak of war in the Middle East, though risks and regional disparities have increased, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on 15 June 2026.

According to the IMF, the conflict has affected commodity markets, inflation dynamics and financial conditions, but there are no signs of a global slowdown so far. Major economies, including the United States and China, continue to show stable growth momentum.

The IMF noted that global resilience remains uneven. In several countries and regions, particularly in Africa, the effects of the crisis are significantly more pronounced. Additional uncertainty stems from risks linked to a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to infrastructure in the Middle East.

One of the main transmission channels of the conflict has been rising energy prices. IMF data shows that oil prices have increased by around 30 percent compared with pre-war levels, although this remains below the peak levels recorded at the start of the conflict.

Partial stabilisation has been supported by the use of accumulated oil reserves in several countries, including China, as well as increased production outside the Persian Gulf region and measures to curb demand.

Despite higher energy costs, long-term inflation expectations remain broadly stable, reflecting continued confidence in central bank policies. Financial markets have also remained resilient. Government bond yields have risen, but there has been no large-scale shift into safe-haven assets, and financial conditions remain relatively accommodative.

Additional support for the global economy has come from investment in technology, including artificial intelligence development and data centre infrastructure, particularly in the United States and parts of Asia. However, productivity gains remain unevenly distributed across countries.

The most vulnerable economies are those dependent on energy imports and with limited macroeconomic policy space. In the Gulf region, growth forecasts have been revised, while inflationary pressures have increased in Europe. Developing economies in Asia are experiencing currency depreciation and capital outflows, while African countries are facing worsening external balances and rising fiscal pressures.

The IMF stressed the need for central banks to remain firmly focused on price stability and for cautious fiscal policies, including limited and targeted subsidies. It also highlighted the importance of investment in technology and human capital to reduce inequality amid digital transformation.

The organisation said it stands ready to expand support to countries facing economic difficulties.

Work is ongoing to adjust existing programmes and discuss new initiatives with several countries, including The Gambia, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi and Bangladesh.

The IMF is expected to present an updated assessment of the situation on 8 July as part of its World Economic Outlook update.