Uzbek Soum Ends July Nearly Unchanged Against US Dollar

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The Uzbek soum is ending July with a slight weakening against the US dollar, but its exchange rate has remained virtually unchanged since the beginning of 2026, according to an assessment by Alpari analyst Anna Bodrova.

According to her data, as of 30 July, the market exchange rate stood at 12,005 soums per dollar. Over the week, the national currency depreciated by 0.29%, whereas a week earlier it had strengthened by 0.56%. Overall in July, the soum fell by 0.69% against the US currency.

Since the beginning of the year, the soum's exchange rate against the dollar has decreased by only 0.05%. According to the analyst, the national currency held its weakest positions in mid-February and its strongest in the first days of July.

Anna Bodrova noted that the Central Bank's decision to maintain the main rate at 14% reflects the regulator's cautious approach against the backdrop of annual inflation at 6.4% and core inflation at 5.7%. In her view, high real interest rates continue to restrain domestic demand and support the attractiveness of savings in the national currency.

At the same time, the analyst pointed to ongoing external and internal inflationary risks, including rising global commodity prices, high domestic demand, and instability in export revenues, partly due to pauses in gold shipments. According to her assessment, this increases the importance of capital inflows for maintaining foreign exchange market stability.

According to Bodrova, the possibility of easing monetary policy remains, but a reduction in the main rate is unlikely before the end of the current year. The baseline scenario assumes maintaining the current rate level for an extended period, with a possible cautious reduction provided that core inflation slows down and gold exports recover.

The analyst forecasts that in the coming week of August, the dollar exchange rate against the soum will be in the range of 11,950–12,100 soums.