Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — On 11 November, the metals market came under renewed pressure from US macroeconomic developments. Fresh inflation data from the United States came in above expectations, fuelling concerns about another Federal Reserve interest rate increase.
The dollar strengthened, bond yields rose and precious metals faced another wave of selling. Industrial metals are also under pressure, but conditions vary across the sector: copper is supported by supply shortages in China, while aluminium is falling on expectations of increased global supply.
Gold is trading at US$4,040 per ounce after falling nearly 3% the previous day. Silver is holding near US$52 per ounce and is also attempting to recover from the sell-off.
The main trigger was the US inflation data for October: consumer prices rose by 0.4% month on month, compared with expectations of 0.3%.
Markets have now almost fully priced in a Federal Reserve rate increase in December, with even a 50-basis-point hike being discussed.
This is an unfavourable combination for gold and silver: a stronger dollar and higher bond yields make assets that do not generate interest income less attractive.
Geopolitical risks have not disappeared, but so far they have been unable to offset the impact of US monetary policy.
Platinum and palladium have managed to recover some ground over the past week following a difficult October. Platinum has risen to around US$1,560 per ounce, while palladium has reached US$1,035.
However, it is too early to speak of a full trend reversal. Platinum faces additional pressure from a reassessment of the global market balance: a surplus of around 265,000 ounces is now expected in 2026 due to weaker investment demand.
At the same time, accumulated inventories remain low following three years of deficits, while industrial consumption continues to grow.
Palladium is more heavily dependent on the automotive industry, where the spread of electric vehicles is gradually limiting demand.
Copper remains one of the most closely watched stories in the industrial metals segment. Prices are holding at around US$6.28 per pound. The metal has lost more than 6% over the past month but remains up approximately 24% year on year. The main development this week came from China: copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by more than 24% in a week, reaching their lowest level in almost three years.
At the same time, the premium for imported copper reached a record US$230 per tonne. This indicates that Chinese buyers are willing to pay substantially more to secure available supplies.
The supply shortage is partly offsetting macroeconomic pressure, while long-term demand from the energy sector and artificial intelligence provides additional support.
Aluminium has fallen to around US$3,000 per tonne and continues to lose ground. The market is responding to increased supplies from China: over the first 10 months of the year, the country exported 5.91 million tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products, compared with 5.02 million tonnes a year earlier.
Additional supply is expected from Indonesia and recovering production facilities in the Middle East.
However, it is too early to speak of a market glut: inventories in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses remain approximately 55% below their levels at the beginning of the year.
Zinc appears more resilient, holding at around US$3,745 per tonne. It is supported by limited concentrate availability and low exchange inventories, although weak industrial demand is restricting further gains.
Overall, this week has shown that inflation and Federal Reserve policy have once again become the main drivers of the entire metals market.
Precious metals are attempting to recover from October's losses, but a strong dollar and the prospect of higher interest rates are limiting their upside.
Industrial metals increasingly depend on physical market balances: copper is benefiting from a shortage of raw materials in China, aluminium is facing pressure from growing supply, and zinc is holding its ground thanks to limited inventories.
Until investors receive clearer signals about interest rates and the global economy, it is too early to expect sustained growth across the entire sector.
